IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v40y2019i1_supplp55-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Energy Market Uncertainty Shocks on Energy Transition in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Balcilar
  • David Roubaud
  • Muhammad Shahbaz

Abstract

We study effects of energy market uncertainty shocks on energy transition on the 28 European Union countries from 1990 to 2015 using annual frequency data. We assess the effects of oil price as well as the energy market supply, demand, and residual price shocks using a time-varying parameter panel data stochastic volatility model. We show the importance of reducing energy market uncertainty for the success of a clean energy transition in Europe as uncertainties have strong time-varying effects on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The oil price and residual energy price uncertainties are the key factors encouraging renewable energy transition that reduces the vulnerability of economies to energy shocks. Energy supply shocks affect the transition negatively while the demand shocks work similarly to residual energy prices shocks, requiring a robust energy base that is less volatile. The paper also discusses policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2019. "The Impact of Energy Market Uncertainty Shocks on Energy Transition in Europe," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1_suppl), pages 55-80, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:1_suppl:p:55-80
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.mbal
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.mbal
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.mbal?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
    2. Gales, Ben & Kander, Astrid & Malanima, Paolo & Rubio, Mar, 2007. "North versus South: Energy transition and energy intensity in Europe over 200 years," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 219-253, August.
    3. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, March.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    6. Javier F. Mory, 1993. "Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 151-162.
    7. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    8. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    9. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    10. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
    11. Claude Henry, 1974. "Investment decisions under uncertainty: The "irreversibility effect"," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/327343, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
    13. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alola, Andrew Adewale & Akadiri, Seyi Saint, 2021. "Clean energy development in the United States amidst augmented socioeconomic aspects and country-specific policies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 221-230.
    2. Yongliang Zhang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Salma Karim & Ishrat Jahan, 2021. "Nexus between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renewable Energy Consumption in BRIC Nations: The Mediating Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.
    3. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Umar, Muhammad & Chang, Tsangyao, 2022. "Renewable energy in prism of technological innovation and economic uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 467-478.
    4. He, Ruofan & Wan, Panbing, 2024. "Electricity market integration in China: The role of government officials’ hometown ties," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    5. Isaac Appiah-Otoo, 2021. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Renewable Energy Growth," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
    6. Saadaoui, Zied & BOUFATEH, Talel & JIAO, Zhilun, 2023. "On the transmission of oil supply and demand shocks to CO2 emissions in the US by considering uncertainty: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    7. Attílio, Luccas Assis, 2025. "Impact of critical mineral prices on energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PD).
    8. Fei Su & Feifan Wang & Yahua Xu, 2025. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Volatility Spillovers Among International Stock Market Indices During the COVID-19 Outbreak," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 32(1), pages 237-266, March.
    9. Işık, Cem & Kuziboev, Bekhzod & Ongan, Serdar & Saidmamatov, Olimjon & Mirkhoshimova, Mokhirakhon & Rajabov, Alibek, 2024. "The volatility of global energy uncertainty: Renewable alternatives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    10. Yang, Yi & Zhen, Deyun & Meng, Fuyu, 2024. "Mineral resource management for a sustainable future: Unraveling the role of energy tax in driving green technologies and environmental quality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Jawadi, Fredj & Rozin, Philippe & Gnegne, Yacouba & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and business fluctuations in Europe: A sectorial analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Ben Jabeur, Sami & Bakkar, Yassine & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2025. "Do global COVOL and geopolitical risks affect clean energy prices? Evidence from explainable artificial intelligence models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Akan, Taner, 2023. "Can renewable energy mitigate the impacts of inflation and policy interest on climate change?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 255-289.
    14. Bruno Di Giusto & Joseph Lavallee & Igor Žilák & Yvonne Hu Di Giusto, 2024. "Public Opinion and the Energy Transition in East Asia: The Case of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mamothoana Difeto & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Advanced OECD Countries using over One Century of Data," Working Papers 201813, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. van Eyden, Reneé & Difeto, Mamothoana & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century’s data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 612-621.
    3. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    4. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
    5. Tunc, Ahmet & Kocoglu, Mustafa & Aslan, Alper, 2022. "Time-varying characteristics of the simultaneous interactions between economic uncertainty, international oil prices and GDP: A novel approach for Germany," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    8. Gong, Xu & Chen, Liqiang & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Analyzing dynamic impacts of different oil shocks on oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    10. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    11. Sakaki, Hamid, 2019. "Oil price shocks and the equity market: Evidence for the S&P 500 sectoral indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 137-155.
    12. Mohamad Husam Helmi & Mohammed I. Abu Eleyan & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Esra Ballı, 2023. "The Time-Varying Effects of Oil Shocks on the Trade Balance of Saudi Arabia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Mar𨀠 Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañ鳠, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
    14. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    15. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
    16. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The great plunge in oil prices: causes, consequences, and policy responses," CAMA Working Papers 2015-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    18. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hyun, Jun Seog & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Oil price shocks and China's economy: Reactions of the monetary policy to oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 61-69.
    19. Kostas Mavromaras & M-Ali Sotoudeh & Andrew C. Worthington, 2017. "Responses of Economic Activity to Global Oil Market Shocks: A Comparative Analysis of Major Net Oil-Producing and -Consuming Countries," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93, pages 70-85, June.
    20. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2025. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth and Inflation in Asia: What do We Learn from Empirical Studies?," MPRA Paper 123664, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy transition; Uncertainty; Europe; Stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:1_suppl:p:55-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.