IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oec/stdkab/5kg0nvzmgfd5.html

Energy Prices and Business Cycles: Lessons from a Simulated Small Open Economy Model

Author

Listed:
  • Torsten Schmidt
  • Tobias Zimmermann

Abstract

Despite energy price hikes in recent years, growth rates turned out to be high in most industrialised countries. This pattern starkly contrasts the adverse effects that energy price shocks exerted on growth in the 1970s and 1980s. This study investigates whether a reduction in the energy cost share or different sources of energy price hikes are responsible for this divergence. By adding an exogenous twovariable VAR to a new open economy model for Germany, both energy prices and global economic activity are specified to be independent from domestic variables but assumed to influence each other. We show that it is sensible to calibrate the model in accordance with long-run fluctuations in important, observable, structural parameters and VAR coefficients on a period by period basis. Increases in energy prices and in global output serve as supply side and demand side shocks respectively. Our results suggest that the effects of recent energy price hikes have been different from past experiences because they were demand driven. Therefore, supply driven energy price increases could still be an important source of business cycle fluctuations. JEL Classifications: E31, E32, F41 Keywords: Oil prices, new Keynesian open economy model

Suggested Citation

  • Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2012. "Energy Prices and Business Cycles: Lessons from a Simulated Small Open Economy Model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2011(2), pages 29-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5kg0nvzmgfd5
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2011-5kg0nvzmgfd5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. repec:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:375-398 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gert Peersman & Ine van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro area economy [Labour market implications of EU product market integration]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 603-651.
    4. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico & Kriegler, Elmar, 2005. "The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 277-292, August.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sauer Stephan & Sturm Jan-Egbert, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    7. Steve Ambler & Ali Dib & Nooman Rebei, 2003. "Nominal Rigidities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Structural Model of a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 03-29, Bank of Canada.
    8. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2005. "Effects of Oil Price Shocks on German Business Cycles," RWI Discussion Papers 0036, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    11. Schmidt, Torsten & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2007. "Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?," Ruhr Economic Papers 29, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Casares, Miguel & McCallum, Bennett T., 2006. "An optimizing IS-LM framework with endogenous investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 621-644, December.
    13. Manuel Frondel & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2006. "The Empirical Assessment of Technology Differences: Comparing the Comparable," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 186-192, February.
    14. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    16. Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2007. "Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0029, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Manuel Frondel & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2002. "The Capital-Energy Controversy: An Artifact of Cost Shares?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 23(3), pages 53-79, July.
    18. Tobias Zimmermann & Torsten Schmidt, 2005. "Effects of oil price shocks on German business cycles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 212, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    21. Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 107-137, February.
    22. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Prices On Inflation and Growth: Time Series Analysis In Turkish Economy For 1988:01-2013:04 Period," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 29-36.
    2. Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2012. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Schwächephase wird allmählich überwunden," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 63(1), pages 5-42.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2007. "Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0029, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Soma Patra, 2022. "Oil price shocks, firm entry and exit in a heterogeneous firm model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 349-378, February.
    5. Hahn, Elke & Mestre, Ricardo, 2011. "The role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s," Working Paper Series 1356, European Central Bank.
    6. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    7. Schubert, Stefan F., 2014. "Dynamic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks And Their Impact On The Current Account," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 316-337, March.
    8. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, September.
    9. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-55.
    10. Yunqing Wang & Qigui Zhu, 2015. "Energy price shocks, monetary policy and China's economic fluctuations," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 126-141, May.
    11. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    12. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Milani, Fabio, 2009. "Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 827-837, November.
    14. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE.
    15. Gulzar Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2020. "Understanding Business Cycle Fluctuations in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 1-28.
    16. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    17. Jean-Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    18. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen & Junior Maih, 2018. "Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 128-151, October.
    19. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    20. Antonio J., Garzón & Luis A., Hierro, 2022. "Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 130-146.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5kg0nvzmgfd5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oecddfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.