IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of oil price shocks on German business cycles


  • Tobias Zimmermann
  • Torsten Schmidt



In this paper we analyse to what extend movements in oil prices can help to explain business cycle fluctuations in Germany. To clarify whether oil price shocks have effects on real economic activity in Germany at all we use two different versions of a real business cycle model namely a closed and a small open economy version and introduce oil as an additional factor in the production function. Like in the related literature (Kim and Loungani 1992; de Miguel et al. 2003) in both versions oil price shocks have effects on real economic activity. In a second step we use these models to analyse whether the effects of oil price movements have changed over time. Our hypothesis is that the effects decreased since the seventies because oil use became a less important factor for industrial production. Therefore we split our data set into two subperiods namely from 1970 to 1986 and from 1987 to 2000 and calibrate our models to both subsets. In this model economy oil price shocks contribute substantially to business cycle fluctuations in the seventies and early eighties but only to a very limited extend in the late eighties and nineties

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Zimmermann & Torsten Schmidt, 2005. "Effects of oil price shocks on German business cycles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 212, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:212

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    2. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1996. "The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, Winter.
    3. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin-Moreno, 2003. "Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 47-61.
    4. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
    5. Alfred Maussner & Julius Spatz, 2006. "Determinants of business cycles in small scale macroeconomic models: the German case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 921-950, November.
    6. Thomas Harjes, 1997. "Real business cycles in an open economy: An application to Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(4), pages 635-656, December.
    7. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    9. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-154, March.
    10. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    11. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    12. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    13. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
    14. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
    15. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Löschel Andreas & Oberndorfer Ulrich, 2009. "Oil and Unemployment in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 146-162, April.
    2. Schubert, Stefan F., 2014. "Dynamic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks And Their Impact On The Current Account," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 316-337, March.
    3. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Torsten & Vance, Colin & Zimmermann, Tobias & Belke, Ansgar, 2008. "Einfluss von Preisschocks auf die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland: Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Projekt-Nr. I D 4-020815-16/07. Endbericht - Oktober 2008," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70890.

    More about this item


    oil prices; business cycles; small open economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.