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Oil and Unemployment in Germany

  • Löschel, Andreas
  • Oberndorfer, Ulrich

In this paper, we analyze oil price impacts on unemployment for Germany. Firstly, we survey theoretical and empirical literature on the oil-unemployment relationship and relate them to the German case. Secondly, we illustrate this issue within the framework of a vector autoregression (VAR) approach for Germany. For this purpose, we use three different specifications in order to adequately address the uncertainty related to the construction of an adequate oil variable. Using monthly data from 1973 to 2008, we show that oil price increases induce a rise in unemployment in the German labor market. Moreover, for a restricted sample period for post-unification Germany, we oppose claims that the oil to macroeconomy relationship has weakened since the 1980s. However, our results suggest that it has become more important to construct adequate measures of oil price variables.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 08-136.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7526
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  1. Tobias Zimmermann & Torsten Schmidt, 2005. "Effects of oil price shocks on German business cycles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 212, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2007. "Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0029, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. He, Zonglu & Maekawa, Koichi, 2001. "On spurious Granger causality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 307-313, December.
  4. Atsuyuki Naka & David Tufte, 1997. "Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1593-1603.
  5. Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine Yücel, 2000. "Oil prices and the economy," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-6.
  6. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
  7. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2001. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretive survey," Working Papers 0102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  8. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
  9. Gebhard Flaig*, 2005. "Time Series Properties of the German Production Index," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 89(4), pages 419-434, November.
  10. Winker, Peter & Meyer, Mark, 2004. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis : Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," Discussion Papers 2004,001E, University of Erfurt, Faculty of Economics, Law and Social Sciences.
  11. Steiner, Viktor, 2001. " Unemployment Persistence in the West German Labour Market: Negative Duration Dependence or Sorting?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(1), pages 91-113, February.
  12. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
  13. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2008. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 15/08, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  14. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  15. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
  16. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  17. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  18. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
  19. Greening, Lorna A. & Davis, William B. & Schipper, Lee & Khrushch, Marta, 1997. "Comparison of six decomposition methods: application to aggregate energy intensity for manufacturing in 10 OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-390, July.
  20. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
  21. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
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