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Oil and Unemployment in Germany

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  • Löschel, Andreas
  • Oberndorfer, Ulrich

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze oil price impacts on unemployment for Germany. Firstly, we survey theoretical and empirical literature on the oil-unemployment relationship and relate them to the German case. Secondly, we illustrate this issue within the framework of a vector autoregression (VAR) approach for Germany. For this purpose, we use three different specifications in order to adequately address the uncertainty related to the construction of an adequate oil variable. Using monthly data from 1973 to 2008, we show that oil price increases induce a rise in unemployment in the German labor market. Moreover, for a restricted sample period for post-unification Germany, we oppose claims that the oil to macroeconomy relationship has weakened since the 1980s. However, our results suggest that it has become more important to construct adequate measures of oil price variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Löschel, Andreas & Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "Oil and Unemployment in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-136, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7526
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
    2. Elena Vakulenko, 2013. "Labour Market Analysis using Time Series Models: Russia 1999-2011," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 120/2013, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; unemployment; Germany;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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