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Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States


  • Cavalcanti, Tiago
  • Jalles, João Tovar


This paper studies the effects of oil price shocks in the last 30years on the Brazilian and American inflation rate and rhythm of economic activity. The Brazilian and the United States economies are interesting polar cases, since they had a completely different path on the oil import dependence rate. While the oil import dependence rate has increase sharply in the United States (US), it has decreased substantially in Brazil. We found that output growth volatility in the United States has been decreasing over time as well as the contribution of oil price shocks to such volatility, despite the increase in oil import dependence. Inflation volatility has also been decreasing but oil price shocks are accounting for a larger fraction of this volatility in the US. In Brazil, such shocks do not seem to have a clear impact on output growth and they account for a very small fraction of the Brazilian inflation and output growth rate volatility. We finally run some counterfactual experiments to analyze how real output growth in the United States would had been if net oil import share in the United States behaved similarly to what was observed in Brazil. We conclude that output level would be roughly the same, however, it would be about 10% less volatile if the US had the actual Brazilian oil import share.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavalcanti, Tiago & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 475-486.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:104:y:2013:i:c:p:475-486 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.10.039

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Semei Coronado & Rebeca Jim'enez-Rodr'iguez & Omar Rojas, 2015. "An empirical analysis of the relationships between crude oil, gold and stock markets," Papers 1510.07599,, revised May 2016.
    3. Li, Qiming & Cheng, Ke & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2017. "Response pattern of stock returns to international oil price shocks: From the perspective of China’s oil industrial chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1821-1831.
    4. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    5. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Prices On Inflation and Growth: Time Series Analysis In Turkish Economy For 1988:01-2013:04 Period," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 29-36.
    6. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Oil price and exchange rate in India: Fresh evidence from continuous wavelet approach and asymmetric, multi-horizon Granger-causality tests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 272-283.
    8. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin & Liu, Lifan, 2016. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks: Outlier evidence from nineteen major oil-related countries/regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-332.
    9. Rafik Nazarian & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Asymmetry of the Oil Price Pass–Through to Inflation in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 457-464.
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    13. Wang, Delu & Ma, Gang & Song, Xuefeng & Liu, Yun, 2017. "Energy price slump and policy response in the coal-chemical industry district: A case study of Ordos with a system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 325-339.


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