IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Note on the Empirical Relation between Oil Prices and the Value of the Dollar


  • Jaime Marquez

    () (School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC 20036, USA)

  • Silvia Merler

    () (School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC 20036, USA)


This paper offers an empirical characterization of the relation between the international price of oil and exchange rates that is both useful and reliable. Our characterization is useful because it rests on information of asset prices that are determined in functioning asset markets. Our characterization is reliable because its maintained assumptions are not rejected by the data. Four features differentiate our work from previous analyses. First, our reliance on bilateral rates opens previously ignored financial arbitrage opportunities between oil prices and exchange rates. Second, our emphasis on statistical testing makes our characterization empirically reliable. Specifically, we use a vector-error correction modeling strategy in which both oil prices and exchange rates are endogenous. This framework allows testing for the existence of an arbitrage relation, for the direction of causality, for parameter constancy, for white noise residuals, and for forecast accuracy. Third our reliance on data through 2020 makes our analysis timely. Fourth, to emphasize the advantages of our approach, we compare our results to those derived for formulations relying on effective exchange-rate indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime Marquez & Silvia Merler, 2020. "A Note on the Empirical Relation between Oil Prices and the Value of the Dollar," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(8), pages 1-16, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:8:p:164-:d:390830

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christopher G. Collins & Deepa Dhume Datta & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2019. "Revisions to the Federal Reserve Dollar Indexes," FEDS Notes 2019-01-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
    3. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    5. Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices and the USD/EUR Exchange Rate," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4.
    6. Michael P. Leahy, "undated". "New summary measures of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin y:1998:i:oct:p:811-818:n:, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Ayoub Yousefi & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2005. "A stylized exchange rate pass‐through model of crude oil price formation," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(3), pages 177-197, September.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    oil prices; real effective exchange rate; cointegration; China; renminbi; forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G - Financial Economics


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:8:p:164-:d:390830. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.