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Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

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  • Coleman, Les

Abstract

Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months.

Suggested Citation

  • Coleman, Les, 2012. "Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 318-324.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:40:y:2012:i:c:p:318-324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Bermingham, Adam, 2015. "Sentiment in oil markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 179-185.
    2. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
    3. repec:eco:journ2:2018-02-3 is not listed on IDEAS
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    6. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "A Fear Index to Predict Oil Futures Returns," Working Papers 2013.62, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Yong Jiang, 2018. "Does strategic commodities price respond to U.S. Partisan Conflict? Evidence from a parametric test of Granger causality in quantiles," Papers 1810.08396, arXiv.org.
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    10. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    11. Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Oil price volatility and oil-related events: An Internet concern study perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 256-264.
    12. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jing, 2015. "Exploring the WTI crude oil price bubble process using the Markov regime switching model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 377-387.
    13. repec:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:77-88 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:taf:quantf:v:16:y:2016:i:12:p:1917-1928 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ding Du & Xiaobing Zhao, 2017. "Financial investor sentiment and the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 331-361, February.
    16. repec:sgh:gosnar:y:2018:i:1:p:103-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Wang, Minggang & Chen, Ying & Tian, Lixin & Jiang, Shumin & Tian, Zihao & Du, Ruijin, 2016. "Fluctuation behavior analysis of international crude oil and gasoline price based on complex network perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 109-127.
    18. repec:eee:appene:v:207:y:2017:i:c:p:465-476 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ftiti, Zied & Fatnassi, Ibrahim & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2016. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: Assessment of gold–oil markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 33-40.

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    Keywords

    Oil prices; Market efficiency; OPEC;

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