IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/econot/1510.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Petrol Fiyatlarinin Ihracat Uzerindeki Etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Olcay Yucel Culha
  • Mustafa Utku Ozmen
  • Erdal Yilmaz

Abstract

[TR] Petrol fiyatlarinda 2014 yilinin ikinci yarisindan itibaren gozlenen ciddi dusus, petrol fiyatlarinin dis denge uzerindeki etkilerine iliskin tartismalari gundeme getirmistir. Soz konusu dusus petrol ihrac eden ulkelerden petrol ithal eden ulkelere reel gelirlerin kaymasina yol acmaktadir. Bu cercevede, bu calismada, ihracatin yaklasik ucte birinin petrol ihrac eden ulkelere, ucte ikisinin ise petrol ithal eden ulkelere yapildigi dikkate alinarak, petrol fiyatlarindaki degisimin Turkiye’nin ihracatini nasil etkileyecegi konusu ele alinmistir. Ilk asamada petrol fiyatlarinin, Turkiye’nin ihracat yaptigi petrol ihrac/ithal eden ulkelerin buyumelerine etkisi analiz edilmis, beklendigi gibi petrol fiyatlarindaki degisimin bu ulkelerin buyumesi uzerindeki etkisinin asimetrik oldugu bulunmustur. Ikinci asamada ise bu ulke gruplari icin buyumenin ihracati nasil etkiledigi ihracat talep fonksiyonu araciligiyla tahmin edildikten sonra, son asamada tahmin edilen petrol fiyati-buyume ve buyume-ihracat esneklikleri kullanilarak, petrol fiyatlarinin ihracat uzerine etkisi hesaplanmistir. Bulgular, mevcut ihracat paylari dikkate alindiginda petrol fiyatlarinin ihracat uzerindeki net etkisinin sinirli olduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, in this study, the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports is discussed taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey is analyzed, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. As expected, it is found that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function is estimated. Finally, effect of oil prices on exports is calculated considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited considering the current export shares.

Suggested Citation

  • Olcay Yucel Culha & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Erdal Yilmaz, 2015. "Petrol Fiyatlarinin Ihracat Uzerindeki Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1510
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/faf37d71-ee33-4647-aacd-9afc24be8588/en1510eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-faf37d71-ee33-4647-aacd-9afc24be8588-m3fw5mE
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued),in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Özlale, Ümit & Pekkurnaz, Didem, 2010. "Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4489-4496, August.
    3. Tobias N. Rasmussen & Agustin Roitman, 2011. "Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective; Are they Really That Bad?," IMF Working Papers 11/194, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
    5. Bilin Neyaptı & Fatma Taskın & Murat Ungor, 2007. "Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2121-2132.
    6. Olcay Yucel Culha & M. Koray Kalafatcilar, 2014. "Turkiye’de Ihracatin Gelir ve Fiyat Esnekliklerine Bir Bakis : Bolgesel Farkliliklarin Onemi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1405, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. AydIn, Levent & Acar, Mustafa, 2011. "Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1722-1731, March.
    8. Ihsan Bozok & Bahar Sen Dogan & Caglar Yunculer, 2015. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticity of Turkish Exports with Heterogeneous Panel Time-Series Methods," Working Papers 1526, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Nukhet Dogan, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-176.
    10. Erkan Özata, 2014. "Sustainability of current account deficit with high oil prices: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economic Sciences, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(2), pages 71-88.
    11. Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2002. "Price and Income Elasticities of Turkish Export Demand : A Panel Data Application," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(2), pages 19-53.
    12. Çatik, A. Nazif & Önder, Özlem, 2013. "An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 884-892.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.