Sustainability of current account deficit with high oil prices: Evidence from Turkey
Current account deficit as a ratio of GDP is a commonly used measure that determines the sustainability of current account deficits. But other factors such as the composition of the current account deficit, the methods which are used to finance it, exchange rate policy, macroeconomic condition and global economic outlook may also have important implications about the future of current account deficits. The current account deficit in Turkey is regarded as structural because of the dependence of Turkish production and exports on imported intermediate goods. Another factor affecting the current account deficit is the changing oil prices which is a cyclical component. Turkey’s reliance on energy imports is a major factor behind its bloated current account deficit. The traditional approach to investigate the improvement of the external imbalance is based on the import and export functions. Different from this approach in this study a Structural Vector-Autoregression (SVAR) model will be applied to investigate the effects of fuel imports and foreign exchange policy on Turkey’s current account deficit and economic growth. This model will allow us for simultaneous examination of the link between real oil imports, real effective exchange rate, domestic income and the current account.
Volume (Year): 2014 (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: nam. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3|
Phone: (02) 24 09 51 11
Fax: (02) 24 22 06 57
Web page: http://www.vse.cz/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: IISES, Kamerunska 607/1, Prague, Czech Republic|
Web: http://www.vse.cz/ijes/ Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
- Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2002. "On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Four ASEAN Countries," Working Papers 0062, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
- Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," CEPR Discussion Papers 1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Assaf Razin & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability; Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," IMF Working Papers 96/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 5791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Narayan, Seema, 2013. "A structural VAR model of the Fiji Islands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 238-244.
- Milesi-Ferreti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current account sustainability," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34294, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Ahmet N. Kipici & Mehtap Kesriyeli, 2000. "The real exchange rate definitions and calculations," Working Papers 0001, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-115, April.
- Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(2), pages 305-333, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnljes:v:2014:y:2014:i:2:id:14:p:71-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frantisek Sokolovsky)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.