IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc15/113051.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Skill biased labour demand and the wage growth of younger workers: Evidence from an unexpected pension reform

Author

Listed:
  • Danzer, Alexander

Abstract

Large-scale pension reforms can have redistributive wage effects across generations and education groups when the labour market suffers from skill mismatch. A quasi-experimental retirement shock in Ukraine illustrates the effect of labour scarcity on wage growth and returns to education: it reveals that young and well educated workers enjoyed significant wage growth accelerations while older workers with outdated skills did not benefit from the retirement of their comparable peers. The estimated wage effects are in line with predictions from a simple heterogeneous labour demand model applied to a cross-section of Ukrainian firms. The paper illustrates that general equilibrium wage effects can be estimated in a policy evaluation framework if quasi-experiments fulfil very restrictive preconditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Danzer, Alexander, 2015. "Skill biased labour demand and the wage growth of younger workers: Evidence from an unexpected pension reform," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113051, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/113051/1/VfS_2015_pid_612.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsner, Benjamin, 2013. "Emigration and wages: The EU enlargement experiment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 154-163.
    2. Liebman, Jeffrey B. & Luttmer, Erzo F.P. & Seif, David G., 2009. "Labor supply responses to marginal Social Security benefits: Evidence from discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1208-1223, December.
    3. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2010. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub08-1.
    4. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746.
    5. Carmen Pagés-Serra, 2000. "The Cost of Job Security Regulation: Evidence from Latin American Labor Markets," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2000), pages 109-154, August.
    6. de Carvalho Filho, Irineu Evangelista, 2008. "Old-age benefits and retirement decisions of rural elderly in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-146, April.
    7. Freeman, Richard B., 2010. "Labor Regulations, Unions, and Social Protection in Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4657-4702, Elsevier.
    8. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    10. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Sabirianova Peter, Klara, 2005. "Returns to schooling in Russia and Ukraine: A semiparametric approach to cross-country comparative analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 324-350, June.
    11. Antonio Ciccone & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Long-Run Substitutability Between More and Less Educated Workers: Evidence from U.S. States, 1950-1990," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 652-663, November.
    12. Fleisher, Belton M. & Sabirianova, Klara & Wang, Xiaojun, 2005. "Returns to skills and the speed of reforms: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe, China, and Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 351-370, June.
    13. Carmen Pagés-Serra & James J. Heckman, 2000. "The Cost of Job Security Regulation: Evidence from Latin American Labor Markets," Research Department Publications 4227, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Alexander M. Danzer, 2013. "Benefit Generosity and the Income Effect on Labour Supply: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 1059-1084, September.
    15. Mishra, Prachi, 2007. "Emigration and wages in source countries: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 180-199, January.
    16. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "Theory, General Equilibrium, and Political Economy in Development Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 17-32, Summer.
    17. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Sabirianova Peter, Klara, 2007. "Public sector pay and corruption: Measuring bribery from micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(5-6), pages 963-991, June.
    18. Benjamin Elsner, 2013. "Does emigration benefit the stayers? Evidence from EU enlargement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 531-553, April.
    19. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2009. "Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1224-1233, December.
    20. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    21. North,Douglass C. & Wallis,John Joseph & Weingast,Barry R., 2013. "Violence and Social Orders," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107646995.
    22. Orazem, Peter F. & Vodopivec, Milan, 1997. "Value of human capital in transition to market: Evidence from Slovenia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 893-903, April.
    23. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1993. "Labor Demand and the Source of Adjustment Costs," NBER Working Papers 4394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kupets, Olga, 2016. "Education-job mismatch in Ukraine: Too many people with tertiary education or too many jobs for low-skilled?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 125-147.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Danzer, Alexander, 2015. "Skill biased labour demand and the wage growth of younger workers: Evidence from an unexpected pension reform," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113051, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Julio Acuna, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of Out-Migration and Return Migration on Wages in the Source Country: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 173-206.
    3. Elsner, Benjamin, 2013. "Emigration and wages: The EU enlargement experiment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 154-163.
    4. Victor Lyashok, 2019. "The Effect Of Pension Growth On The Labor Force Participation Of Pensioners In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 22/PSP/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Giesecke, Matthias & Jäger, Philipp, 2021. "Pension incentives and labor supply: Evidence from the introduction of universal old-age assistance in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Claudio Montenegro & Carmen Pagés, 2005. "Who Benefits from Labor Market Regulations? Chile 1960-1998," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Jorge Restrepo & Andrea Tokman R. & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edi (ed.),Labor Markets and Institutions, edition 1, volume 8, chapter 4, pages 077-114, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Mattia Makovec & Ririn S Purnamasari & Matteo Sandi & Astrid R Savitri, 2018. "Intended versus unintended consequences of migration restriction policies: evidence from a natural experiment in Indonesia," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 915-950.
    8. Edo Anthony, 2015. "The Impact of Immigration on Native Wages and Employment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1151-1196, July.
    9. Massimo Anelli & Gætano Basso & Giuseppe Ippedico & Giovanni Peri, 2020. "Does Emigration Drain Entrepreneurs?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8388, CESifo.
    10. Puhani, Patrick A. & Tabbert, Falko, 2016. "The effects of pension changes on age of first benefit receipt: Regression discontinuity evidence from repatriated ethnic Germans," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 12-23.
    11. Hartmut Lehmann & Alexander Muravyev & Klaus Zimmermann, 2012. "The Ukrainian longitudinal monitoring survey: towards a better understanding of labor markets in transition," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Massimo Anelli & Gaetano Basso & Giuseppe Ippedico & Giovanni Peri, 2019. "Youth Drain Entrepreneurship and Innovation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1240, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Benjamin Elsner, 2022. "Does emigration increase the wages of non-emigrants in sending countries," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 208-208, March.
    14. Brunello, Giorgio & Crivellaro, Elena & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2010. "Lost in Transition? The Returns to Education Acquired under Communism 15 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall," IZA Discussion Papers 5409, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Marek Gora & Piotr Lewandowski & Maciej Lis, 2017. "Temporary employment boom in Poland – a job quality vs. quantity trade-off?," IBS Working Papers 04/2017, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    16. Małgorzata Walerych, 2024. "The aggregate and redistributive effects of emigration," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(1), pages 99-143, February.
    17. Elsayed, Ahmed & de Grip, Andries & Fouarge, Didier & Montizaan, Raymond, 2018. "Gradual retirement, financial incentives, and labour supply of older workers: Evidence from a stated preference analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 277-294.
    18. Davide Gandolfi & Timothy Halliday & Raymond Robertson, 2017. "Trade, FDI, migration, and the place premium: Mexico and the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 1-37, February.
    19. James J. Heckman & Carmen Pagés, 2004. "Introduction to "Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin American and the Caribbean"," NBER Chapters, in: Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean, pages 1-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Chein, Flávia & Assunção, Juliano Junqueira, 2016. "How does Emigration affect Labor Markets? Evidence from Road Construction in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • P23 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.