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Impact of oil price fluctuations on Indian economy

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  • Priyanshi Gupta
  • Anurag Goyal

Abstract

Indian economy has been facing the twin issues of mounting trade imbalance and persisting inflation. Oil constitutes one-third of the country's total imports and is considered to have wide-ranging impact on its economy. This paper empirically examines how oil price fluctuations impact Indian economy through various channels, viz. real sector, monetary policy, external trade, exchange rate and investment. The results of cyclical correlation analysis suggest that oil is pro-cyclical to output, price level, stock market, gold, interest rate and foreign exchange reserves, while it is counter-cyclical to money supply, net exports and exchange rate. Also, it is found that oil Granger causes output, general price level and net exports. The study employs vector auto-regression (VAR) analysis and examines variance decomposition to capture the linear inter-dependencies among the variables. The structural stability tests demonstrate that there is no evidence of structural break in the VAR model, confirming the reliability of estimated relationships under the VAR model.

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  • Priyanshi Gupta & Anurag Goyal, 2015. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on Indian economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 39(2), pages 141-161, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:39:y:2015:i:2:p:141-161
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    4. Thomas Theobald & Peter Hohlfeld, 2017. "Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?," IMK Working Paper 185-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Seref Bozoklu & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2022. "The Oil Price‐Macroeconomic fundamentals nexus for emerging market economies: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1569-1590, January.
    6. Deheri, Abdhut & Ramachandran, M., 2023. "Does Indian economy asymmetrically respond to oil price shocks?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2016. "Dynamic conditional correlation and causality relationship among foreign exchange, stock and commodity markets: Evidence from 2014 Russian financial crisis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 949-962.
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sharma, Rajesh & Sinha, Avik & Jiao, Zhilun, 2021. "Analyzing nonlinear impact of economic growth drivers on CO2 emissions: Designing an SDG framework for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).

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