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Dynamics of global oil prices, exchange rate and precious metal prices in India

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  • Jain, Anshul
  • Ghosh, Sajal

Abstract

This study examines cointegration and Granger causality among global oil prices, precious metal (Gold, Platinum and Silver) prices and Indian Rupee–US Dollar exchange rate using daily data spanning from 2nd January 2009 to 30th December 2011. ARDL bounds tests indicate that the series are cointegrated. Toda–Yamamoto version of Granger causality has been employed to establish the causation amongst the variables. The study also examines generalized error variance decomposition of variables due to various shocks in the system. Such information provides insight into the transmission links between the global oil market and the Indian precious metals and foreign exchange market. These have the potential for significant impact in further research, portfolio management and central bank policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Jain, Anshul & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Dynamics of global oil prices, exchange rate and precious metal prices in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 88-93.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:1:p:88-93
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2012.10.001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
    2. Luca Barbaglia & Ines Wilms & Christophe Croux, 2016. "Commodity Dynamics: A Sparse Multi-class Approach," Papers 1604.01224, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    3. Afflerbach, Patrick & Fridgen, Gilbert & Keller, Robert & Rathgeber, Andreas W. & Strobel, Florian, 2014. "The by-product effect on metal markets – New insights to the price behavior of minor metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 35-44.
    4. Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C., 2016. "Dynamic linkages among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock market in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 179-185.
    5. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:201-206 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:anm:alpnmr:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:45-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Barbaglia, Luca & Wilms, Ines & Croux, Christophe, 2016. "Commodity dynamics: A sparse multi-class approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 62-72.
    8. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo, 2015. "The role of outliers and oil price shocks on volatility of metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 139-150.
    9. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:316-332 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:292-308 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Zhang, Chuanguo & Tu, Xiaohua, 2016. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 131-139.
    12. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 504-511.
    14. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:358-365 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Priyanshi Gupta & Anurag Goyal, 2015. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on Indian economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 39(2), pages 141-161, June.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert & Pilbeam, Keith, 2015. "Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 292-300.
    17. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Dynamics between strategic commodities and financial variables: Evidence from Japan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-9.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Precious metal prices; Exchange rate; ARDL; Toda Yamamoto; Granger causality;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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