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Is there excess co-movement of primary commodity prices? A co-integration test

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  • Palaskas, Theodosios B.
  • Varangis, Panos N.

Abstract

It is a common perception that primary commodity prices tend to move together. This perception is especially common among commodity traders who may justify an increase in the price of one commodity because the prices of other commodities have increased. This commodity price co-movement can be identified among commodities that seem unrelated in terms of production or consumption substitutability or complementarity. But there is no reason for believing that prices of unrelated commodities should move together, except for macroeconomic shocks affecting commodity markets in general. For example, in a recession commodity prices decline across the board because demand declines; and in periods of generalinflation commodity prices rise, partly because commodities provide a hedge against inflation. However, after accounting for macroeconomic shocks, is co-movement among prices still evident? In this paper, the authors test for co-movement and excess co-movement of primary commodity prices using the econometric tests of co-integration in time series and the resulting error-correction models (ECM). The ECMs will be used to examine the existence of short-run excess co-movement between commodity prices, taking into consideration the long-run relationship between them.

Suggested Citation

  • Palaskas, Theodosios B. & Varangis, Panos N., 1991. "Is there excess co-movement of primary commodity prices? A co-integration test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 758, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:758
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ohashi, Kazuhiko & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2016. "Increasing trends in the excess comovement of commodity prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 48-64.
    3. Firew B Woldeyes, 2013. "Long-run Effects of Resource Rents in Developing Countries: The role of public investment management," OxCarre Working Papers 105, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
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    6. Lescaroux, François, 2009. "On the excess co-movement of commodity prices--A note about the role of fundamental factors in short-run dynamics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3906-3913, October.
    7. OHASHI Kazuhiko & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Increasing Trends in the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Discussion papers 13048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is There Co-Movement of Agricultural Commodities Futures Prices and Crude Oil?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114626, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    10. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
    12. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2011. "Commodities and financial variables: Analyzing relationships in a changing regime environment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 469-484, October.
    13. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Post-Print hal-01613916, HAL.
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    15. Jena, Pratap Kumar, 2015. "Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Variables in India: An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," MPRA Paper 73892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Larson, Donald F. & Varangis, Panos & Yabuki, Nanae, 1998. "Commodity risk management and development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1963, The World Bank.
    17. Hadj Saadi, 2001. "Le phénomène des mouvements joints des prix internationaux de matières premières," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(168), pages 865-883.
    18. Walter C. Labys, 2003. "New Directions in the Modeling and Forecasting of Commodity Markets," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 122(2), pages 3-19.
    19. Jain, Anshul & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Dynamics of global oil prices, exchange rate and precious metal prices in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 88-93.
    20. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2009. "World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5557-5566, December.
    21. Labys, W. C. & Achouch, A. & Terraza, M., 1999. "Metal prices and the business cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 229-238, December.
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    23. Baffes, John & Gohou, Gaston, 2005. "The co-movement between cotton and polyester prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3534, The World Bank.
    24. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.

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