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Cointegration in a Macroeconomic System


  • Kunst, Robert
  • Neusser, Klaus


This paper investigates the long-run relationships within a set of six quarterly time-series on the Austrian economy by means of cointegration. After analyzing the univariate properties, especially with respect to the appropriate seasonal filter, the maximum-likelihood method proposed by Johansen (1988) is applied to estimate and test the cointegrating relationships. We found three such relations, implying that the system is driven by three independent stochastic time trends. In a next stage we investigate whether the empirically determined cointegrating relationships are compatible with implications derived from the neoclassical growth model with exogenous stochastic technical progress. It is found that the Austrian data strongly reject the propositions that the real interest rate and the log ratios of consumption to output, investment to output, and the real gross wage sum to output are stationary. Copyright 1990 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Kunst, Robert & Neusser, Klaus, 1990. "Cointegration in a Macroeconomic System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 351-365, Oct.-Dec..
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:5:y:1990:i:4:p:351-65

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2000. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Nonstationary Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 248, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Jacobson, Tor & Ohlsson, Henry, 1994. "Long-Run Relations between Private and Public Sector Wages in Sweden," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 343-360.
    5. Palaskas, Theodosios B. & Varangis, Panos N., 1991. "Is there excess co-movement of primary commodity prices? A co-integration test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 758, The World Bank.
    6. Vogelvang, E., 1990. "Testing for co-integration with spot prices of some related agricultural commodities," Serie Research Memoranda 0001, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
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    8. Bec, Frédérique, 1994. "Impulsions dominantes et analyse des fluctuations de l’économie française," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 70(1), pages 5-26, mars.
    9. Franses, Philip Hans & Kunst, Robert M, 1999. " On the Role of Seasonal Intercepts in Seasonal Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 409-433, August.
    10. Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Denis Péguin, 1993. "Protection tarifaire, brevets et diffusion internationale de la connaissance : croissance et dynamique de court terme aux États-Unis de 1889 à 1985," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(2), pages 369-388.
    11. Lof, Marten & Lyhagen, Johan, 2002. "Forecasting performance of seasonal cointegration models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-44.
    12. Martin Wagner, 2004. "A Comparison of Johansen's, Bierens' and the Subspace Algorithm Method for Cointegration Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 399-424, July.
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    14. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2001. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Var Models with Cointegration," CESifo Working Paper Series 451, CESifo Group Munich.
    15. Choe, Young Chan & Koo, Won W., 1993. "Monetary Impacts On Prices In The Short And Long Run: Further Results For The United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
    16. Corona, Francisco & Orraca, Pedro, 2016. "Remittances in Mexico and their unobserved components," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 22674, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Vogelvang, E., 1989. "Dynamic interrelationships between spot prices of some agricultural commodities on related markets : a first examination," Serie Research Memoranda 0017, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    18. Vogelvang, E., 1990. "Hypotheses testing concerning relationship between spot prices of various types of coffee," Serie Research Memoranda 0012, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    19. Peter Kugler, 1991. "Growth, exports and cointegration: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(1), pages 73-82, March.
    20. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "How great are the great ratios?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 163-177.
    21. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2017. "Capital productivity in industrialized economies: evidence from error-correction model and Lagrange Multiplier tests," MPRA Paper 81655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Bohl, Martin T., 1999. "Testing the Long-Run Implications of the Neoclassical Stochastic Growth Model: A Panel-Based Unit Root Investigation for West German Lander, 1970-1994," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 155-164, January.

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