Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies. The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction
In a panel of West African countries, we investigate whether data on immigrant remittance flows can be used to improve on predictive accuracy of aggregate demand in a systematic way. The results of the prediction experiments are compared to traditional significance tests of asymmetric error correction and of the exogenous remittance variable. We find that there is a considerable discrepancy between statistical hypothesis testing and the results from the forecast comparison. In particular, while remittances yield significant coefficients for at least some of the accounts aggregates, they do not contribute to improved forecasting accuracy.
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- Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005.
"Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
- Samir Jahjah & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp, 2003. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Working Papers 03/189, International Monetary Fund.
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- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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