Modeling National Accounts Sub-Aggregates. An Application of Non-Linear Error Correction
Many macroeconometric models depict situations where the shares of the major demand aggregates in output are stable over time. The joint dynamic behavior of the considered demand aggregate and output may thus be approximated by a cointegrated vector autoregression. However, the shares of many demand sub-aggregates in output are rather mobile and changing over time. In order to simultaneously capture the flexibility of the shares of the sub-aggregates and the long-run constancy of the share of the total aggregate, we consider trivariate systems of two macroeconomic sub-aggregates and output with errorcorrection terms that are non-linear functions of the original variables. The merits of the models are evaluated by means of several forecasting experiments.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria|
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://www.ihs.ac.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Institute for Advanced Studies - Library, Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doris Szoncsitz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.