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Impulsions dominantes et analyse des fluctuations de l’économie française

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  • Bec, Frédérique

    (CREST-ENSAE)

Abstract

Following Brunner and Meltzer [1978], the dominant impulses hypothesis attributes the business cycles to the unanticipated component of a set of explicit home and foreign impulses. While maintaining this frame, our study departs from this approach by using a more sophisticated statistical methodology recently developped in the field of time series econometrics. The analysis of a VAR model including real GDP, its price deflator, a monetary aggregate, an indicator of fiscal policy, the import price index and the foreign demand, supports an explanation of the French economic fluctuations in terms of multiple impulses in the short run. More precisely, it underlines the necessity of taking foreign impulses into account, the foreign demand shock dominating the foreign price impulse. L’approche des impulsions dominantes, dans la tradition de Brunner et Meltzer [1978], considère que les fluctuations économiques conjoncturelles sont dues à la composante non anticipée d’un ensemble d’impulsions explicites domestiques et étrangères. Bien que s’inscrivant dans cette approche, notre étude se propose de la reformuler dans un cadre statistique plus performant en utilisant les développements récents de l’économétrie des séries temporelles. L’analyse d’un modèle VAR incluant le PIB en volume, son déflateur, un agrégat monétaire, un indicateur des actions gouvernementales en matière de politique budgétaire, le prix des importations et la demande étrangère plaide en faveur d’une explication en termes d’impulsions multiples des fluctuations de l’économie française à court terme, et souligne l’importance de la prise en compte des chocs étrangers, et plus particulièrement des chocs de demande étrangère.

Suggested Citation

  • Bec, Frédérique, 1994. "Impulsions dominantes et analyse des fluctuations de l’économie française," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 70(1), pages 5-26, mars.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:70:y:1994:i:1:p:5-26
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