The ACEGES laboratory for energy policy: Exploring the production of crude oil
An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of 'the invisible hand' but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
- Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2006.
"Agent-Based Computational Economics: A Constructive Approach to Economic Theory,"
Handbook of Computational Economics,
in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 831-880
- Leigh Tesfatsion, 2006. "Agent-Based Computational Economics: A Constructive Approach to Economic Theory," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 527, Society for Computational Economics.
- Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2006. "Agent-Based Computational Economics: A Constructive Approach to Economic Theory," Staff General Research Papers 12514, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Roger Bentley & Godfrey Boyle, 2008. "Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, July.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
- Fernholz, Robert, 1999. "On the diversity of equity markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 393-417, April.
- Kaufmann, Robert K., 1991. "Oil production in the lower 48 states : Reconciling curve fitting and econometric models," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 111-127, April.
- James D. Hamilton, 2000.
"What is an Oil Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hallock, John L. & Tharakan, Pradeep J. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Jefferson, Michael & Wu, Wei, 2004. "Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1673-1696.
- M. C. Jones & Arthur Pewsey, 2009. "Sinh-arcsinh distributions," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(4), pages 761-780.
- Li, Hongyan & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2009. "Development of Open Source Software for Power Market Research: The AMES Test Bed," Staff General Research Papers 13069, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Vlasios Voudouris, 2011. "Towards a conceptual synthesis of dynamic and geospatial models: fusing the agent-based and Object – Field models," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 38(1), pages 95-114, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5480-5489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.