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Nowcasting world GDP and trade using global indicators

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  • Stratford, Kate

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

Global activity is a key driver of UK economic growth. Official estimates of world GDP and trade are only available with a lag, but more timely global indicators can give an early steer on growth. Global indicators have been useful in predicting large swings in world activity and have been particularly helpful since the onset of the financial crisis. A combination of these indicators has performed much better at tracking world GDP and trade growth since 2008 than a simple benchmark model. The global manufacturing PMI export orders index has been the single best indicator during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Stratford, Kate, 2013. "Nowcasting world GDP and trade using global indicators," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 233-242.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0113
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Domit, Silvia & Shakir, Tamarah, 2010. "Interpreting the world trade collapse," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(3), pages 183-189.
    2. Haddow, Abigail & Hare, Chris & Hooley, John & Shakir, Tamarah, 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(2), pages 100-109.
    3. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    5. James Rossiter, 2010. "Nowcasting the Global Economy," Discussion Papers 10-12, Bank of Canada.
    6. Wheeler, Tracy, 2010. "What can we learn from surveys of business expectations?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(3), pages 190-198.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bell, Venetia & Co, Lai Wah & Stone, Sophie & Wallis, gavin`, 2014. "Nowcasting UK GDP growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 58-68.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.

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