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Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth

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  • Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
  • Mr. Fabian Valencia

Abstract

This paper assesses the real effects of the energy reform in Mexico by looking at its impact on manufacturing output through changes in energy prices. Using sub-sector and state-level manufacturing output data, along with past variation in energy prices, we find electricity prices––relative to oil and gas––to be more important in the manufacturing process, with a one standard deviation reduction in electricity prices leading to a 2.8 percent increase in manufacturing output. Our estimated elasticities together with plausible reductions in electricity tariffs derived from the energy reform, could increase manufacturing output by up to 3.6 percent, and overall real GDP by 0.6 percent. Larger reductions are possible over the long run if increased efficiency in the sector leads electricity prices to converge to U.S. levels. Moreover, including the impact of lower electricity tariffs on the services sector, could lead to significantly larger effects on GDP. Accounting for endogeneity of unit labor costs in a panel VAR setting leads to an additional indirect channel which amplifies the impact of electricity prices on output.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jorge A Alvarez & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2015. "Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth," IMF Working Papers 2015/045, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/045
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ramírez-Cendrero, Juan M. & Paz, María J., 2017. "Oil fiscal regimes and national oil companies: A comparison between Pemex and Petrobras," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 473-483.
    3. Majah-Leah V. Ravago & Arlan Zandro I. Brucal & James Roumasset & Jan Carlo Punongbayan, 2019. "The Role of Electricity Prices in Structural Transformation: Evidence from the Philippines," Working Papers 201904, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    4. Zeus Guevara & Oscar Córdoba & Edith X. M. García & Rafael Bouchain, 2017. "The Status and Evolution of Energy Supply and Use in Mexico Prior to the 2014 Energy Reform: An Input-Output Approach †," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Arnoldo López-Marmolejo & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & Gerardo Sebastián Diaz Muro, 2023. "Inverse Balassa–Samuelson effect in Mexico: the role of the oil sector," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2273-2300, November.
    6. Nina Tsydenova & Alethia Vázquez Morillas & Álvaro Martínez Hernández & Diana Rodríguez Soria & Camilo Wilches & Alexandra Pehlken, 2019. "Feasibility and Barriers for Anaerobic Digestion in Mexico City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-21, July.
    7. Castellanos-Sosa, Francisco A. & Cabral, René & Mollick, André Varella, 2022. "Energy reform and energy consumption convergence in Mexico: A spatial approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 336-350.
    8. Ravago, Majah-Leah V. & Brucal, Arlan Zandro & Roumasset, James & Punongbayan, Jan Carlo, 2019. "The role of power prices in structural transformation: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-33.
    9. Valenzuela, Jose Maria, 2023. "State ownership in liberal economic governance? De-risking private investment in the electricity sector in Mexico," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Ramírez, José Carlos & Ortiz-Arango, Francisco & Rosellón, Juan, 2021. "Impact of Mexico's energy reform on consumer welfare," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy & Ganguly, Amrita, 2017. "Cross subsidy removal in electricity pricing in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 181-190.
    12. Anne Carolina Rodrigues Klaar & Stefano Frizzo Stefenon & Laio Oriel Seman & Viviana Cocco Mariani & Leandro dos Santos Coelho, 2023. "Structure Optimization of Ensemble Learning Methods and Seasonal Decomposition Approaches to Energy Price Forecasting in Latin America: A Case Study about Mexico," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Enriquez, Alejandra & Ramirez, Jose Carlos & Rosellon, Juan, 2019. "Costos De Generación, Inversión Y Precios Del Sector Eléctrico En México [Generation Costs, Investment And Prices In The Electricity Sector In Mexico]," MPRA Paper 98084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Idoko Ahmed Itodo & Shahrzad Safaeimanesh & Festus Victor Bekun, 2017. "Energy Use and Growth of Manufacturing Sector: Evidence from Turkey," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(1), pages 88-96, March.
    15. Alpizar–Castro, Israel & Rodríguez–Monroy, Carlos, 2016. "Review of Mexico׳s energy reform in 2013: Background, analysis of the reform and reactions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 725-736.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; electricity price; energy price; oil price; price effect; growth; energy reform; manufacturing output; electricity; gas; Mexico; panel VAR; transportation cost; input price; oil derivatives price; Manufacturing; Natural gas sector; Energy prices; Oil prices; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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