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How is the Taylor Rule Distributed under Endogenous Monetary Regimes?

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  • Xiaochun Liu

Abstract

This paper estimates Taylor rules at various points (quantiles) on the conditional interest†rate distribution for endogenously identified monetary regimes. I find that the Taylor principle upholds only for the upper tails of the interest†rate distribution in monetary Hawkish regimes, but not in monetary interim and Dovish regimes. Moreover, the results show that the Federal Reserve responds more aggressively to inflation at upper tails than at lower tails in both monetary Dovish and Hawkish regimes, implying its significant inflation†avoidance preference. Finally, the Federal Reserve appears to respond to inflation more aggressively during Hawkish regimes than during Dovish regimes across quantiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaochun Liu, 2018. "How is the Taylor Rule Distributed under Endogenous Monetary Regimes?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 305-316, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:18:y:2018:i:2:p:305-316
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiaochun Liu, 2016. "Markov switching quantile autoregression," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 70(4), pages 356-395, November.
    2. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and Monetary Policy Approaching a Zero Bound on Nominal Rates: Quantile Regression Results for the United States and Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1705-1723, December.
    3. Murray, Christian J. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2015. "Markov Switching And The Taylor Principle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 913-930, June.
    4. Wolters, Maik H., 2012. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 342-361.
    5. Zheng Liu & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 284-303, April.
    6. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, September.
    7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    8. Qu, Zhongjun, 2008. "Testing for structural change in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 170-184, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christina Christou & Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2019. "Monetary Policy Reaction to Uncertainty in Japan: Evidence from a Quantile-on-Quantile Interest Rate Rule," Working Papers 201929, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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