IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Markov-Switching Quantile Autoregression

  • Liu, Xiaochun

This paper considers the location-scale quantile autoregression in which the location and scale parameters are subject to regime shifts. The regime changes are determined by the outcome of a latent, discrete-state Markov process. The new method provides direct inference and estimate for different parts of a nonstationary time series distribution. Bayesian inference for switching regimes within a quantile,via a three-parameter asymmetric-Laplace distribution, is adapted and designed for parameter estimation. The simulation study shows reasonable accuracy and precision in model estimation. From a distribution point of view, rather than from a mean point of view, the potential of this new approach is illustrated in the empirical applications to reveal the countercyclical risk pattern of stock markets and the asymmetric persistence of real GDP growth rates and real trade-weighted exchange rates.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55800/1/MPRA_paper_55800.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 55800.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 07 Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55800
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
  2. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521608275 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Yin-wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Working Papers 052005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Markov-switching MIDAS models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Yuzhi Cai, 2010. "Forecasting for quantile self-exciting threshold autoregressive time series models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(1), pages 199-208.
  6. Luc Bauwens & Arie Preminger & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2007. "Theory and inference for a Markov switching Garch model," Cahiers de recherche 07-09, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  7. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  8. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  9. Gerlach, Richard H. & Chen, Cathy W. S. & Chan, Nancy Y. C., 2011. "Bayesian Time-Varying Quantile Forecasting for Value-at-Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 481-492.
  10. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  11. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Normalization in Econometrics," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252.
  12. Yu, Keming & Moyeed, Rana A., 2001. "Bayesian quantile regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 437-447, October.
  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Ausin, M. Concepcion & Lopes, Hedibert F., 2010. "Time-varying joint distribution through copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2383-2399, November.
  15. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
  16. Geweke, John & Tanizaki, Hisashi, 2001. "Bayesian estimation of state-space models using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm within Gibbs sampling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 151-170, August.
  17. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  18. Chen, Qian & Gerlach, Richard & Lu, Zudi, 2012. "Bayesian Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall forecasting via the asymmetric Laplace distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3498-3516.
  19. Vrontos, I D & Dellaportas, P & Politis, D N, 2000. "Full Bayesian Inference for GARCH and EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 187-98, April.
  20. Yuzhi Cai & Julian Stander, 2008. "Quantile self-exciting threshold autoregressive time series models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 186-202, 01.
  21. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2004. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Working Papers 2003-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  22. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521845731 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55800. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.