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Forecasting for quantile self-exciting threshold autoregressive time series models

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  • Yuzhi Cai

Abstract

Self-exciting threshold autoregressive time series models have been used extensively, and the conditional mean obtained from these models can be used to predict the future value of a random variable. In this paper we consider quantile forecasts of a time series based on the quantile self-exciting threshold autoregressive time series models proposed by Cai and Stander (2008) and present a new forecasting method for them. Simulation studies and application to real time series show that the method works very well. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuzhi Cai, 2010. "Forecasting for quantile self-exciting threshold autoregressive time series models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(1), pages 199-208.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:biomet:v:97:y:2010:i:1:p:199-208
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/biomet/asp070
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    Cited by:

    1. Cathy Chen & Richard Gerlach, 2013. "Semi-parametric quantile estimation for double threshold autoregressive models with heteroskedasticity," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1103-1131, June.
    2. Xiaochun Liu, 2016. "Markov switching quantile autoregression," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 70(4), pages 356-395, November.
    3. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2011. "Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 142-157, September.
    4. Yuzhi Cai & Guodong Li, 2018. "A novel approach to modelling the distribution of financial returns," Working Papers 2018-22, Swansea University, School of Management.
    5. Yuzhi Cai & Julian Stander, 2018. "The threshold GARCH model: estimation and density forecasting for financial returns," Working Papers 2018-23, Swansea University, School of Management.
    6. Antonio Galvao & Kengo Kato & Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Jose Olmo, 2014. "Testing linearity against threshold effects: uniform inference in quantile regression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(2), pages 413-439, April.

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