On downside risk predictability through liquidity and trading activity: A dynamic quantile approach
Most downside risk models implicitly assume that returns are a sufficient statistic with which to forecast the daily conditional distribution of a portfolio. In this paper, we analyze whether the variables that proxy for market-wide liquidity and trading conditions convey valid information for forecasting the quantiles of the conditional distribution of several representative market portfolios, including volume- and value-weighted market portfolios, and several Book-to-Market- and Size-sorted portfolios. Using dynamic quantile regression techniques, we report evidence of conditional tail predictability in terms of these variables. A comprehensive backtesting analysis shows that this link can be exploited in dynamic quantile modelling, in order to considerably improve the performances of day-ahead Value at Risk forecasts.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 29 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001.
"Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
8462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 531, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April.
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001.
"A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May.
- Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima & Oliver Linton & Daniel R. Smith, 2011.
"Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regression,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 150-160, January.
- Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Lima, Luiz Renato & Linton, Oliver & Smith, Daniel R., 2011. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 150-160.
- Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima & Oliver Linton & Daniel Smith, 2010. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regression," NCER Working Paper Series 67, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Smith, Daniel & Linton, Oliver & Lima, Luiz Renato & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2009. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk models via Quantile Regression," UC3M Working papers. Economics we094625, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Wagner P. Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima & Oliver Linton, 2008. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regressions," Working Papers Series 161, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
- DeRossi, G. & Harvey, A., 2007.
"Quantiles, Expectiles and Splines,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0660, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Suominen, Matti, 2001. "Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 545-565, December.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
- GermÃ¡n LÃ³pez-Espinosa & Antonio Moreno & Antonio Rubia & Laura Valderrama, 2012.
"Short-term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk: A Global CoVaR Approach,"
Faculty Working Papers
02/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2012. "Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: A global CoVaR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3150-3162.
- International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Short-Term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk; A Global Covar Approach," IMF Working Papers 12/46, International Monetary Fund.
- Xiao, Zhijie & Koenker, Roger, 2009. "Conditional Quantile Estimation for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1696-1712.
- repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/136188 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ergün, A. Tolga & Jun, Jongbyung, 2010. "Time-varying higher-order conditional moments and forecasting intraday VaR and Expected Shortfall," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 264-272, August.
- Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
- Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
- French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
- Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
- Len Umantsev & Victor Chernozhukov, 2001. "Conditional value-at-risk: Aspects of modeling and estimation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 271-292.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoglu, 2006. "Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 101-128.
- Koenker, Roger & Zhao, Quanshui, 1996. "Conditional Quantile Estimation and Inference for Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 793-813, December.
- George Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Conditional autoregressive valu at risk by regression quantile: Estimatingmarket risk for major stock markets," Working Papers 0521, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- James W. Taylor, 2008. "Using Exponentially Weighted Quantile Regression to Estimate Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(3), pages 382-406, Summer.
- Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March.
- Stoll, Hans R, 1989. " Inferring the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 115-34, March.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2009. "Differences in housing price forecastability across US states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 351-372.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
- Tarun Chordia, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, 04.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:1:p:202-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.