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The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment

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  • Quint, Dominic
  • Venditti, Fabrizio

Abstract

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market tight in the face of a large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective in sustaining the price of oil? Between 2017 and early 2020 when the OPEC+ strategy was in place, oil inventories fell substantially and the price of oil reached a peak of around 80 USD per barrel, from a minimum of 30 USD in 2016. This suggests that the OPEC+ strategy had a significant impact on the global oil market. Yet, to what extent did crude prices actually reflect OPEC+ production cuts rather than other factors, like swings in demand for oil? How would the price of oil have evolved had OPEC+ not cut supply? This paper provides an answer to these questions through a counterfactual analysis based on two structural models of the global oil market. We find the impact of OPEC+ on the market was overall quite limited, owing to significant deviations from the assigned quotas. On average, without the OPEC+ cuts, the price of oil would have been 6 percent (4 USD) lower. JEL Classification: Q43, C53

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  • Quint, Dominic & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment," Working Paper Series 2467, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202467
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Anna A. Bakulina & Olga V. Panina & Stanislav E. Prokofiev & Natalia L. Krasyukova & Valery L. Abramov & Natalia V. Sergeeva & Olga V. Loseva & Tatiana G. Kasyanenko & Elena V. Takmakova, 2021. "The Black Sea Region Energy Cooperation: Current Trends and Prospects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 257-266.
    3. Junlian Gong & Jun Nagayasu, 2025. "What Makes the Oil Pricing Center? The Impact of Futures Markets and Production," TUPD Discussion Papers 71, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    4. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    5. Celso Brunetti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2023. "Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market," Working Papers 2023-19, CEPII research center.
    6. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2025. "Pandemic, Ukraine, OPEC+ and strategic stockpiles: Taming the oil market in turbulent times," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Montant, Gil, 2025. "The effectiveness of OPEC and OPEC+ from 2009 to 2024: An empirical appraisal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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