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The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment

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  • Quint, Dominic
  • Venditti, Fabrizio

Abstract

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market tight in the face of a large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective in sustaining the price of oil? Between 2017 and early 2020 when the OPEC+ strategy was in place, oil inventories fell substantially and the price of oil reached a peak of around 80 USD per barrel, from a minimum of 30 USD in 2016. This suggests that the OPEC+ strategy had a significant impact on the global oil market. Yet, to what extent did crude prices actually reflect OPEC+ production cuts rather than other factors, like swings in demand for oil? How would the price of oil have evolved had OPEC+ not cut supply? This paper provides an answer to these questions through a counterfactual analysis based on two structural models of the global oil market. We find the impact of OPEC+ on the market was overall quite limited, owing to significant deviations from the assigned quotas. On average, without the OPEC+ cuts, the price of oil would have been 6 percent (4 USD) lower. JEL Classification: Q43, C53

Suggested Citation

  • Quint, Dominic & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment," Working Paper Series 2467, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202467
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    2. Anna A. Bakulina & Olga V. Panina & Stanislav E. Prokofiev & Natalia L. Krasyukova & Valery L. Abramov & Natalia V. Sergeeva & Olga V. Loseva & Tatiana G. Kasyanenko & Elena V. Takmakova, 2021. "The Black Sea Region Energy Cooperation: Current Trends and Prospects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 257-266.
    3. Junlian Gong & Jun Nagayasu, 2025. "What Makes the Oil Pricing Center? The Impact of Futures Markets and Production," TUPD Discussion Papers 71, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
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    5. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
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    7. Montant, Gil, 2025. "The effectiveness of OPEC and OPEC+ from 2009 to 2024: An empirical appraisal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Celso Brunetti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2023. "Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market," Working Papers 2023-19, CEPII research center.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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