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The Influence of OPEC+ on Oil Prices: A Quantitative Assessment

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  • Dominic Quint
  • Fabrizio Venditti

Abstract

Since 2017, a new coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) implemented production cuts to limit downward pressure on crude prices. The Covid-19 shock led to a temporary collapse of this coalition and to a price war among OPEC+ members, which contributed to the oil price slump that had originally been caused by widespread containment measures. As the oil market balance seems to crucially hinge on the stability of this coalition, we draw on the 2017–2020 experience to assess the effectiveness of OPEC+ in sustaining oil prices. Using a counterfactual analysis based on two complementary structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models, we find that the impact of OPEC+ on the price of oil was small, owing to significant deviations of oil producers from their assigned quotas. On average, without the OPEC+ cuts, the oil price would have been 6 percent (4 USD) lower than observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominic Quint & Fabrizio Venditti, 2023. "The Influence of OPEC+ on Oil Prices: A Quantitative Assessment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 173-186, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:44:y:2023:i:5:p:173-186
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.4.dqui
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Anna A. Bakulina & Olga V. Panina & Stanislav E. Prokofiev & Natalia L. Krasyukova & Valery L. Abramov & Natalia V. Sergeeva & Olga V. Loseva & Tatiana G. Kasyanenko & Elena V. Takmakova, 2021. "The Black Sea Region Energy Cooperation: Current Trends and Prospects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 257-266.
    3. Junlian Gong & Jun Nagayasu, 2025. "What Makes the Oil Pricing Center? The Impact of Futures Markets and Production," TUPD Discussion Papers 71, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    4. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    5. Celso Brunetti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2023. "Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market," Working Papers hal-04196053, HAL.
    6. Montant, Gil, 2025. "The effectiveness of OPEC and OPEC+ from 2009 to 2024: An empirical appraisal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2025. "Pandemic, Ukraine, OPEC+ and strategic stockpiles: Taming the oil market in turbulent times," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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