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The Relevance of Supply Shocks for Inflation: The Spanish Case

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Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of supply shocks on the Spanish inflation rate. The methodology applied is based on Ball and Mankiw (1995). These authors assume that a good proxy for supply shocks is the third moment of the distribution of price changes, and show that nominal rigidities imply a positive relation between inflation and skewness, that is magnified by the variance of the distribution. The main data used are the monthly consumer price indexes of each region, disaggregated in 57 categories, for the 1993-2005 period. We estimate the relation between mean inflation and the higher moments of the distribution, including several control variables. The analysis has been carried out in two ways: firstly, each region is analysed separately and, secondly, we have used panel data techniques in order to test the homogeneity across regions. Our results point out that Spanish regions show a common pattern with regard to the nominal rigidities detected, and that the Spanish economy is vulnerable to supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • María Ángeles Caraballo & Carlos Usabiaga, 2006. "The Relevance of Supply Shocks for Inflation: The Spanish Case," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/17, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  • Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2006_17
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    1. Robert A. Amano & R. Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada," Staff Working Papers 97-14, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
    3. Ángel Estrada & J. David López-Salido, 2004. "Understanding Spanish dual inflation," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(1), pages 123-140, January.
    4. Richard De Abreu Lourenco & David Gruen, 1995. "Price Stickiness and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9502, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    6. Simon Hall & Anthony Yates, 1998. "Are there downward nominal rigidities in product markets?," Bank of England working papers 80, Bank of England.
    7. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    8. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Döpke Jörg & Pierdzioch Christian, 2003. "Inflation and the Skewness of the Distribution of Relative Price Changes: Empirical Evidence for Germany / Inflation und die Schiefe der Verteilung relativer Preisänderungen: Empirische Evidenz für De," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(2), pages 136-158, April.
    10. Luc Aucremanne & Guy Brys & Peter J Rousseeuw & Anja Struyf & Mia Hubert, 2003. "Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 81-105 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Mª Ángeles Caraballo Pou & Carlos Dabús, 2005. "Nominal rigidities, relative prices and skewness," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2005/17, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    12. María Ángeles Caraballo & Carlos Usabiaga, 2003. "Análisis de la estructura de la inflación de las regiones españolas: La metodología de Ball y Mankiw," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/44, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    13. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sartaj Rasool Rather & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2015. "Price Rigidity, Inflation and the Distribution of Relative Price Changes," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(2), pages 258-287, December.
    2. Sartaj Rasool Rather, 2016. "Asymmetric Impact of Relative Price Shocks in Presence of Trend Inflation," Working Papers 2016-153, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    3. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Isaac Mwangi, 2013. "Commodity price shocks and inflation in a net oil-importing economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148, June.
    4. Carlos Usabiaga & Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "New Disaggregate Evidence on Spanish Inflation Persistence," EcoMod2012 3800, EcoMod.
    5. Sartaj Rather, 2016. "Asymmetric Impact of Relative Price Shocks in Presence of Trend Inflation," Working Papers id:11477, eSocialSciences.
    6. Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2012. "Disaggregate evidence on Spanish inflation persistence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3029-3046, August.
    7. Alejandro C. García-Cintado & Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2016. "The economic integration of Spain: a change in the inflation pattern," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; nominal rigidities; skewness; supply shocks; Spanish regions;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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