IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/frz/wpaper/wp2017_16.rdf.html

On the difficulty of interpreting market behaviour in an uncertain world: the case of oil futures pricing between 2003 and 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Giulio Cifarelli

    (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa)

  • Paolo Paesani

Abstract

Our results show that over the two cycles that characterize the 2003-2016 period a significant change in the working of oil markets occurs. Our pricing investigation,based on a three-agent model (hedgers, fundamentalist speculators and chartists),find that from 2009 onwards traditional analysis of supply and demand forecasts, loses its explanatory power and hence its credibility. The sharp and unexpected fluctuations in oil prices, compounded by unpredictable political factors and technological break-troughs (e.g. tight sands/shale oil) strongly raises uncertainty and reduces the effectiveness of customary forecasting techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Cifarelli & Paolo Paesani, 2017. "On the difficulty of interpreting market behaviour in an uncertain world: the case of oil futures pricing between 2003 and 2016," Working Papers - Economics wp2017_16.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2017_16.rdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.disei.unifi.it/upload/sub/pubblicazioni/repec/pdf/wp16_2017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2017_16.rdf. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgio Ricchiuti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/defirit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.