IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jbuscr/v14y2018i2d10.1007_s41549-018-0028-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Global Crude Oil Markets Behave as One Great Pool? A Cyclical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Niyati Bhanja

    (MICA - The School of Ideas)

  • Arif Billah Dar

    (Shri Mata Vaishno Devi University (SMVDU))

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (Rajagiri Centre for Business Studies
    Montpellier Business School)

Abstract

In energy economics literature, the controversial assertion of whether crude oil markets are regionalized (Weiner in Energy J 12:95–107, 1991) or behave as one unified entity (Adelman in Energy J 5(3):1–9, 1984) is still an unsettled debate. While the proponents of globalization hypothesis trust that the crude oil markets behave as one big pool, the advocates of regionalization believe that they are segmented. To settle this debate, we tested the globalization–regionalization hypothesis by estimating the wavelet coherence, multiple correlation, cross-correlation, and club convergence at different time horizons. The results suggest that the crude oil markets remain synced over longer time horizons, thereby reaffirming the globalization argument. However, at shorter time horizons, they behave rather independently and are hence mostly regionalized.

Suggested Citation

  • Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2018. "Do Global Crude Oil Markets Behave as One Great Pool? A Cyclical Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(2), pages 219-241, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:14:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-018-0028-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0028-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41549-018-0028-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41549-018-0028-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reboredo, Juan C., 2011. "How do crude oil prices co-move?: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 948-955, September.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    4. M. A. Adelman, 1984. "International Oil Agreements," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-10.
    5. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    6. Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2008. "Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Crude Oil Benchmarks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 79-96.
    7. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae‐Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares‐Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, May.
    8. Huei-Chu Liao & Shu-Chuan Lin & Ho-Chuan Huang, 2014. "Are crude oil markets globalized or regionalized? Evidence from WTI and Brent," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 235-241, March.
    9. Naccache, Théo, 2011. "Oil price cycles and wavelets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 338-352, March.
    10. Weiner, R.J., 1991. "Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool?"," Papers 9120, Laval - Recherche en Energie.
    11. Fattouh, Bassam, 2010. "The dynamics of crude oil price differentials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 334-342, March.
    12. Szymon Wlazlowski & Bjorn Hagstromer & Monica Giulietti, 2011. "Causality in crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 3337-3347.
    13. Robert J. Weiner, 1991. "Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool"?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 95-108.
    14. S. Gurcan Gulen, 1999. "Regionalization in the World Crude Oil Market: Further Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 125-139.
    15. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar, 2015. "“The beauty of gold is, it loves bad news”: evidence from three major gold consumers," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 187-208, November.
    16. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar, 2016. "Frequency based co-movement of inflation in selected euro area countries," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-13.
    17. Wai‐Man Liu & Emma Schultz & John Swieringa, 2015. "Price Dynamics in Global Crude Oil Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 148-162, February.
    18. Lin, Sharon Xiaowen & Tamvakis, Michael N., 2001. "Spillover effects in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 43-56, January.
    19. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Hu, Hsu-Ning & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2010. "Jump dynamics with structural breaks for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 343-350, March.
    20. Brigida, Matthew, 2014. "The switching relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-55.
    21. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    22. Chen, Wei & Huang, Zhuo & Yi, Yanping, 2015. "Is there a structural change in the persistence of WTI–Brent oil price spreads in the post-2010 period?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 64-71.
    23. Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Billah Dar, Arif & Bhanja, Niyati & Shah, Aasif, 2013. "Stock Market Integration in Asian Countries: evidence from Wavelet multiple correlations," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 28, pages 441-456.
    24. Yihua Yu & Yonghui Zhang & Feng Song, 2015. "World energy intensity revisited: a cluster analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1158-1169, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Miftah, Amal, 2020. "Oil price jumps and the uncertainty of oil supplies in a geopolitical perspective: The role of OPEC’s spare capacity," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 18-35.
    2. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2018. "Geopolitical Risks and the Predictability of Regional Oil Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201860, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    4. Niyati Bhanja & Samia Nasreen & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "Connectedness in International Crude Oil Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 227-262, January.
    5. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: New evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niyati Bhanja & Samia Nasreen & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "Connectedness in International Crude Oil Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 227-262, January.
    2. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Dynamic transmission mechanisms in global crude oil prices: Estimation and implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1181-1193.
    4. Kuck, Konstantin & Schweikert, Karsten, 2017. "A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 16-31.
    5. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Wen, Fenghua & Chen, Jinyu, 2023. "Evolution of the information transmission between Chinese and international oil markets: A quantile-based framework," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    6. Bertrand Candelon & Marc Joëts & Sessi Tokpavi, 2012. "Testing for crude oil markets globalization during extreme price movements," Post-Print hal-01411687, HAL.
    7. Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio & Talebbeydokhti, Elham, 2019. "Testing persistence of WTI and Brent long-run relationship after the shale oil supply shock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-31.
    8. Giulietti, Monica & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2014. "Crude oil price differentials, product heterogeneity and institutional arrangements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 28-32.
    9. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Quaresima, Greta & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2021. "Decoupling and recoupling in the crude oil price benchmarks: An investigation of similarity patterns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Ayman Omar, 2015. "West Texas Intermediate and Brent Spread during Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Supply Disruptions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 693-703.
    11. Liu, Li & Chen, Ching-Cheng & Wan, Jieqiu, 2013. "Is world oil market “one great pool”?: An example from China's and international oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 364-373.
    12. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Banerjee, Shayan, 2014. "A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 235-242.
    13. Jia, Xiaoliang & An, Haizhong & Fang, Wei & Sun, Xiaoqi & Huang, Xuan, 2015. "How do correlations of crude oil prices co-move? A grey correlation-based wavelet perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 588-598.
    14. Neil A. Wilmot, 2013. "Cointegration in the Oil Market among Regional Blends," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 424-433.
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Hegang & Xu, Chao & Zhang, Xiaoming, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Candelon, Bertrand & Joëts, Marc & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2013. "Testing for Granger causality in distribution tails: An application to oil markets integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 276-285.
    17. Xiaoyong Xiao & Jing Huang, 2018. "Dynamic Connectedness of International Crude Oil Prices: The Diebold–Yilmaz Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, September.
    18. Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Evolution of the world crude oil market integration: A graph theory analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 90-100.
    19. Jerome Geyer‐Klingeberg & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2021. "Determinants of the WTI‐Brent price spread revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 736-757, May.
    20. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Spatial crude oil production divergence and crude oil price behaviour in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil; Globalization; Regionalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:14:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-018-0028-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.