IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v74y2014icp235-242.html

A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space

Author

Listed:
  • Kaufmann, Robert K.
  • Banerjee, Shayan

Abstract

Although there is a general consensus that the market is unified, here we quantify the factors that create regions by analyzing the price relation between 33 crude oils. ADF statistics indicate that 447 of the 528 crude oil pairings cointegrate; 81 do not. The presence/absence of cointegration is analyzed using a logit model. The likelihood that the prices for two crude oils cointegrate depends on their physical characteristics (density and sulfur content), economic factors (country risk for the nation of origin), their geographic location (distance between supply ports), and political factors (OPEC membership). Over the sample period, the technology to refine heavy crude oils penetrates the market, and this reduces the price difference between heavy and light crude oils. The effect of country risk implies that crude oils from high risk nations are not perfect substitutes for crude oils of similar quality from low risk nations. Finally, crude oils from widely separated suppliers are more likely to cointegrate than crude oils from near-by nations, which suggests consumers diversify supply across transportation chokepoints. For this sample, these sources of regionalization add $0.20 per barrel to the $2.86 average price difference between crude oils in the same market. Together, these factors have important implications for the efficacy of policy aimed at reducing dependence on unreliable suppliers and the spill-over effects of holding inventories.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaufmann, Robert K. & Banerjee, Shayan, 2014. "A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 235-242.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:74:y:2014:i:c:p:235-242
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.08.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514004819
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.08.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reboredo, Juan C., 2011. "How do crude oil prices co-move?: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 948-955, September.
    2. Nikolaos Milonas & Thomas Henker, 2001. "Price spread and convenience yield behaviour in the international oil market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 23-36.
    3. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. repec:aen:journl:1984v05-03-a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:aen:journl:2000v21-01-a06 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:aen:journl:2008v29-04-a04 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:aen:journl:1992v13-01-a09 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:aen:journl:2001v22-02-a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bertrand Candelon & Marc Joëts & Sessi Tokpavi, 2012. "Testing for crude oil markets globalization during extreme price movements," Post-Print hal-01411687, HAL.
    10. Weiner, R.J., 1991. "Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool?"," Papers 9120, Laval - Recherche en Energie.
    11. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2007. "Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5505-5514, November.
    12. repec:aen:journl:1991v12-03-a07 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:aen:journl:1999v20-01-a07 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jan Bentzen, 2007. "Does OPEC influence crude oil prices? Testing for co-movements and causality between regional crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1375-1385.
    15. Littlefield, Scott R., 2013. "Security, independence, and sustainability: Imprecise language and the manipulation of energy policy in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 779-788.
    16. Philip K Verleger, 2011. "Rising Crude Oil Prices: The Link to Environmental Regulations," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 239-248, October.
    17. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    18. Bradley Ewing & Cynthia Lay Harter, 2000. "Co-movements of Alaska North Slope and UK Brent crude oil prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 553-558.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duygu Ekin Ayasli & Yeliz Yalcin & Serkan Sahin & M. Hakan Berument, 2023. "Turkish Straits and an Important Oil Price Benchmark: Urals," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(4), pages 277-300, July.
    2. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Schroer, Colter, 2023. "Social and environmental events disrupt the relation between motor gasoline prices and market fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Leslie S. Abrahams & Constantine Samaras & W. Michael Griffin & H. Scott Matthews, 2017. "Effect of crude oil carbon accounting decisions on meeting global climate budgets," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 261-275, September.
    4. Jiawen Luo & Tony Klein & Thomas Walther & Qiang Ji, 2024. "Forecasting realized volatility of crude oil futures prices based on machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1422-1446, August.
    5. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang & Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda & Zhang, Dayong, 2020. "On realized volatility of crude oil futures markets: Forecasting with exogenous predictors under structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Klein, Tony, 2018. "Trends and Contagion in WTI and Brent Crude Oil Spot and Futures Markets - The Role of OPEC in the last Decade," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    7. Guo, Sui & Li, Huajiao & An, Haizhong & Ma, Ning & Sun, Qingru & Feng, Sida & Sun, Guangzhao & Liu, Yanxin, 2024. "Detecting the horizontal/vertical price relationship patterns in the global oil industry chain through network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    8. Hong Li & Yanlin Shi, 2022. "Robust information share measures with an application on the international crude oil markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 555-579, April.
    9. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2016. "Price differences among crude oils: The private costs of supply disruptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-8.
    10. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    11. Yuksel Haliloglu, Ebru & Sahin, Serkan & Berument, M. Hakan, 2021. "Brent–Dubai oil spread: Basic drivers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 492-505.
    12. Klein, Tony, 2018. "Trends and contagion in WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures markets - The role of OPEC in the last decade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 636-646.
    13. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Dynamic transmission mechanisms in global crude oil prices: Estimation and implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1181-1193.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2016. "Price differences among crude oils: The private costs of supply disruptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-8.
    2. Jin, Xiaoye & Xiaowen Lin, Sharon & Tamvakis, Michael, 2012. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2125-2134.
    3. Liu, Li & Chen, Ching-Cheng & Wan, Jieqiu, 2013. "Is world oil market “one great pool”?: An example from China's and international oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 364-373.
    4. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Mann, Micheal, 2009. "Horizontal and vertical transmissions in the US oil supply chain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 644-650, February.
    5. Ayman Omar, 2015. "West Texas Intermediate and Brent Spread during Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Supply Disruptions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 693-703.
    6. Jennifer Rushlow & Paul Bauer, 2021. "How the Removal of a Market Barrier Enhanced Market Efficiency: The Case of WTI and Brent Crude Oil Prices," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 87-96, March.
    7. Neil A. Wilmot, 2013. "Cointegration in the Oil Market among Regional Blends," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 424-433.
    8. Jiasha Fu & Hui Qiao, 2022. "The Time-Varying Connectedness Between China’s Crude Oil Futures and International Oil Markets: A Return and Volatility Spillover Analysis," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 341-376, December.
    9. Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Evolution of the world crude oil market integration: A graph theory analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 90-100.
    10. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Spatial crude oil production divergence and crude oil price behaviour in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Kuck, Konstantin & Schweikert, Karsten, 2017. "A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 16-31.
    12. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    13. Niyati Bhanja & Samia Nasreen & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "Connectedness in International Crude Oil Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 227-262, January.
    14. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Liu, Tangyong & Gong, Xu, 2020. "Analyzing time-varying volatility spillovers between the crude oil markets using a new method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Yuksel Haliloglu, Ebru & Sahin, Serkan & Berument, M. Hakan, 2021. "Brent–Dubai oil spread: Basic drivers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 492-505.
    17. repec:aen:journl:ej35-1-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Galay, Gregory, 2019. "Are crude oil markets cointegrated? Testing the co-movement of weekly crude oil spot prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    19. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Dynamic transmission mechanisms in global crude oil prices: Estimation and implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1181-1193.
    20. Ronald Bernstein & Reinhard Madlener, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    21. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:74:y:2014:i:c:p:235-242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.