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Estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the Kazakh economy

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Gronwald
  • Johannes Mayr
  • Sultan Orazbayev

Abstract

This paper explores the role of oil for the Kazakh economy. In order to assess the degree of volatility the oil price features, it, firstly, discusses the literature on oil price behaviour. Secondly, it analyzes the effect of oil price declines on key macroeconomic variables such as real GDP, inflation and real exchange rates using vectorautoregressive (VAR) models. In this respect, the paper deviates from a large number of papers on oil price effects as it considers a transition rather than a developed economy and an oil exporting rather than an oil importing country. The key findings to emerge from this paper are, first, that the price of oil is influenced by a large number of factors, which results in a considerable degree of volatility. Secondly, all variables considered in the VAR model exhibit a strong negative significant reaction on oil price declines, and, thirdly, a standard linear VAR model is appropriate for capturing the Kazakh oil-macro relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gronwald & Johannes Mayr & Sultan Orazbayev, 2009. "Estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the Kazakh economy," ifo Working Paper Series 81, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_81
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/IfoWorkingPaper-81.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Eyal Dvir & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Three Epochs of Oil," NBER Working Papers 14927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
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    12. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tural Karimli & Nigar Jafarova & Heyran Aliyeva & Salman Huseynov, 2016. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Inflation: The Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries," IHEID Working Papers 01-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Richard Pomfret, 2011. "Exploiting Energy and Mineral Resources in Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Mongolia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(1), pages 5-33, March.
    3. Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji, 2014. "The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus (with an application to Iran's sanctions)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 299-313.
    4. Troug, Haytem & Murray, Matt, 2015. "The Effects of Asymmetric Shocks in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy," MPRA Paper 68705, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; VAR-Models; oil exporting economy.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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