Estimating the effects of oil price shockson the Kazakh economy
This paper explores the role of oil for the Kazakh economy. In order to assess thedegree of volatility the oil price features, it, firstly, discusses the literature on oil price behaviour. Secondly, it analyzes the effect of oil price declines on key macroeconomicvariables such as real GDP, inflation and real exchange rates using vectorautoregressive (VAR) models. In this respect, the paper deviates from a large number of papers on oil price effects as it considers a transition rather than a developed economy and an oil exporting rather than an oil importing country. The key findings to emerge from this paper are, first, that the price of oil is influenced by a large number of factors, which results in a considerable degree of volatility. Secondly, all variables considered in theVAR model exhibit a strong negative significant reaction on oil price declines, and, thirdly, a standard linear VAR model is appropriate for capturing the Kazakh oil-macro relationship.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München|
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
- Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
- Eyal Dvir & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Three Epochs of Oil," NBER Working Papers 14927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marc Gronwald, 2008. "Large Oil Shocks and the US Economy: Infrequent Incidents with Large Effects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 151-172.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1998.
"The long-run evolution of energy prices,"
WP 4044-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
- Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
- DEES Stéphane & KARADELOGLOU Pavlos & KAUFMANN Robert & SANCHEZ Marcelo, "undated".
"Modelling the World Oil Market: Assessment of a Quarterly Econometric Model,"
- Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
- Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
- Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
- J. Isaac Miller & Ronald Ratti, 2008.
"Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles,"
0810, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Jan 2009.
- Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
- Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2007.
"The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James D. Hamilton, 2009.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
- Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- John Livernois, 2009. "On the Empirical Significance of the Hotelling Rule," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 22-41, Winter.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2008.
"Public policies against global warming: A supply side approach,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
19638, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
- Dées, Stéphane & Gasteuil, Audrey & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Mann, Michael, 2008. "Assessing the factors behind oil price changes," Working Paper Series 0855, European Central Bank.
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.