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Oil Price Pass-Through into Inflation: The Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Tural Karimli

    () (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)

  • Nigar Jafarova

    () (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)

  • Heyran Aliyeva

    () (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)

  • Salman Huseynov

    () (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)

Abstract

This paper evaluates different channels of oil price pass through into inflation for the countries Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. We propose a methodology to disentangle the effects of different channels after an oil price shock hits international markets. We measure the relative importance of the two distinct channels through which oil price shocks are transmitted into inflation in these economies. For that, we employ an approach which is in the spirit of the methodology proposed by Sims and Zha (1995). The empirical evidence shows that the level of inflation in these oil-exporting countries responds significantly to oil price shocks. The fiscal and cost channels are major amplifiers of the effects of oil price shocks on inflation. By providing new evidence from emerging oil-exporting countries, the paper also has important policy implications on the maintenance of price stability by central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tural Karimli & Nigar Jafarova & Heyran Aliyeva & Salman Huseynov, 2016. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Inflation: The Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries," IHEID Working Papers 01-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:iheidwp01-2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Juthathip Jongwanich & Donghyun Park, 2011. "Inflation in developing Asia: pass‐through from global food and oil price shocks," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 25(1), pages 79-92, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2016. "Permanent and Temporary Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Policy, and Tradable Non-oil Sector: Case of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia," Working Papers 1609, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    2. Vugar Rahimov & Nigar Jafarova & Fuad Ganbarov, 2017. "The Exchange Rate Pass-Through to CPI and its components in Oil-Exporting CIS Countries," IHEID Working Papers 06-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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