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The (UN-) stable relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals

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  • Carlo Altavilla

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between the euro--dollar exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals by adopting nonlinear time series modelling. We found that this relationship is episodically unstable. We also found that an equilibrium-distorting shock is likely to have a greater effect on the exchange rate during periods when the deviation between exchange rate and fundamentals is large; as a consequence, when the exchange rate is close to its equilibrium value it tends to be less sensitive to any shocks in the fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Altavilla, 2008. "The (UN-) stable relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 539-544.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:15:y:2008:i:7:p:539-544
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850600706610
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    1. Sarno, Lucio, 2000. "Real exchange rate behavior in the Middle East: a re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 127-136, February.
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    5. Baillie, Richard T. & Pecchenino, Rowena A., 1991. "The search for equilibrium relationships in international finance: the case of the monetary model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 582-593, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    2. Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Stamopoulou, Ioanna, 2011. "The role of monetary policy in managing the euro - dollar exchange rate," MPRA Paper 29291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Jane Binner & Thomas Elger, 2009. "Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1117-1129.
    4. Yu Hsing & Bruno S. Sergi, 2009. "The dollar/euro exchange rate and a comparison of major models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 199-205, April.
    5. Andreas Andrikopoulos & Aristeidis Samitas & Konstantinos Kougepsakis, 2014. "Volatility transmission across currencies and stock markets: GIIPS in crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1261-1283, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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