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Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics

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  • Kuper, Gerard H.

Abstract

This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of marketing and storage lead to rising gasoline prices, whereas a drop in these costs lowers gasoline prices. The former effect is stronger. This indicates asymmetric dynamics. We also analyze the asymmetry across the sample by analyzing recursive and rolling regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 208-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:208-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.008
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior & Aleksander Welfe, 2014. "Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Fuel Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 105-127, June.
    4. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Zhang, Tao & Ma, Guofeng & Liu, Guangsheng, 2015. "Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 444-456.
    6. Moutinho, Victor & Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira & Hajko, Vladimír, 2017. "Price relationships between crude oil and transport fuels in the European Union before and after the 2008 financial crisis," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 76-83.
    7. Balaguer, Jacint & Ripollés, Jordi, 2016. "Asymmetric fuel price responses under heterogeneity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 281-290.
    8. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
    9. Shamsul, N.S. & Kamarudin, S.K. & Rahman, N.A., 2017. "Conversion of bio-oil to bio gasoline via pyrolysis and hydrothermal: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 538-549.
    10. Yufeng Chen & Guobin Huang & Lihua Ma, 2017. "Rockets and Feathers: The Asymmetric Effect between China’s Refined Oil Prices and International Crude Oil Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    11. Polemis, Michael L. & Fotis, Panagiotis N., 2013. "Do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically in the euro zone area? Evidence from cointegrated panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 425-433.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetry; Gasoline prices; Inventories; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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