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Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions

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  • Knetsch, Thomas A.

Abstract

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive out-of-sample analysis, forecast accuracy at horizons within one year is checked by the root mean squared error as well as the mean error and the frequency of a correct direction-of-change prediction. For all criteria employed, the proposed forecasting tool outperforms the approach of using futures prices as direct predictors of future spot prices. Vis-à-vis the random-walk model, it does not significantly improve forecast accuracy but provides valuable statements on the direction of change.

Suggested Citation

  • Knetsch, Thomas A., 2006. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4353
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price forecasts; rational commodity pricing; convenience yield; single-equation model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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