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A "wreckers theory" of financial distress

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  • von Kalckreuth, Ulf

Abstract

In recent years, a number of papers have established a new empirical regularity. Stocks of distressed firms vastly underperform those of financially healthy firms. It is not necessary to attribute the negative excess returns of distressed firms to inefficient or irrational markets. We show that negative excess returns are the equilibrium outcome when a subset of participants is able to draw returns "in kind" from distressed companies. For firms close to bankruptcy, non-cash returns to ownership will be the dominant form of return to equity. If markets expect a contest for control, these returns will show up in stock valuation. The governance problem described here creates a link between the financial position of a firm and real allocation that may amplify macroeconomic real or financial shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2005. "A "wreckers theory" of financial distress," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4234
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel, 2008. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 256-276.
    2. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Robert Jäckle & Georg Wamser, 2010. "Going Multinational: What are the Effects on Home-Market Performance?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 188-207, May.
    4. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
    5. Frey, Rainer & Hussinger, Katrin, 2006. "The role of technology in M&As: a firm-level comparison of cross-border and domestic deals," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,45, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Hakenes, Hendrik & Fecht, Falko, 2006. "Money market derivatives and the allocation of liquidity risk in the banking sector," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Wolfgang Gerke & Ferdinand Mager & Timo Reinschmidt & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Empirical Risk Analysis of Pension Insurance: The Case of Germany," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 763-784.
    8. Evelyn Hayden & Daniel Porath & Natalja Westernhagen, 2007. "Does Diversification Improve the Performance of German Banks? Evidence from Individual Bank Loan Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 123-140, December.
    9. Bohl, Martin T. & Döpke, Jörg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Real-time forecasting and political stock market anomalies: evidence for the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,22, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Raabe Katharina & Arnold Ivo J.M. & Kool Clemens J.M., 2006. "Industries and the Bank Lending Effects of Bank Credit Demand and Monetary Policy in Germany," Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    11. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
    12. Hoffmann, Johannes & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2006. "Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Trade balances of the central and east European EU member states and the role of foreign direct investment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,41, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Falko Fecht & Hans Grüner, 2008. "Limits to International Banking Consolidation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 651-666, November.
    15. Koetter, Michael & Karmann, Alexander & Fiorentino, Elisabetta, 2006. "The cost efficiency of German banks: a comparison of SFA and DEA," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Fisch, Jan Hendrik, 2006. "Internalization and internationalization under copeting real options," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,15, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the export pricing behaviour of German enterprises changed? Empirical evidence from German sectoral prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,37, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2007. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 527-549.
    22. Knetsch, Thomas A. & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "How to treat benchmark revisions? The case of German production and orders statistics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,38, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market anomalies; default risk; private benefits; moral hazard; limited liability;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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