Brazilian Strategy for Managing the Risk of Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure During a Crisis
Even in a floating foreign exchange rate regime, monetary authorities sometimes intervene in the currency market due to liquidity demand and foreign exchange crises. Typically, central banks intervene using foreign currency trades and/or by changing domestic interest rates. We discuss this framework in the context of an optimal impulse stochastic control model. The control and performance equations include interventions with swap operations in the domestic market, since the Central Bank of Brazil also uses these operations. We evaluate risk management strategies for central bank interventions in case of crisis based on the model. We conclude that the Brazilian risk management strategy of increasing holdings of international reserves and decreasing short foreign exchange rate exposure in domestic public debt after 2004 gave the country more flexibility to manage foreign exchange rate risk in 2008 and to avoid higher interest rates to attract international capital as was necessary in previous crises.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, September.
- Abel Cadenillas & Fernando Zapatero, 2000. "Classical and Impulse Stochastic Control of the Exchange Rate Using Interest Rates and Reserves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 141-156.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001.
"Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?,"
464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
- Robert P Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 02/62, International Monetary Fund.
- Mundaca, Gabriela & Oksendal, Bernt, 1998. "Optimal stochastic intervention control with application to the exchange rate," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 225-243, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.