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Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States

  • Anderson, Richard G.
  • Binner, Jane M.
  • Schmidt, Vincent A.

This paper examines the inflation “pass-through” problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rates of individual goods and the subsequent economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Initial relationships are established with Granger causality tests robust to structural breaks. A feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) is used to approximate the functional relationship between selected component subindexes and the headline CPI. Moving beyond the ANN “black box”, we illustrate how decision rules can be extracted from the network.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 117 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 174-177

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:1:p:174-177
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  1. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Herrera, Ana Maria & Hamilton, James D., 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4qp0p0v5, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  12. Richard G. Anderson & Jane M. Binner & Vincent A. Schmidt, 2011. "Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States," Working Papers 2011-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Jane M. Binner & Peter Tino & Jonathan Tepper & Richard G. Anderson & Barry E. Jones & Graham Kendall, 2009. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Working Papers 2009-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  16. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-61, May.
  17. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Optimal Tests For Nested Model Selection With Underlying Parameter Instability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(05), pages 962-990, October.
  18. Swanson, Norman R & White, Halbert, 1995. "A Model-Selection Approach to Assessing the Information in the Term Structure Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 265-75, July.
  19. Nakamura, Emi, 2005. "Inflation forecasting using a neural network," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 373-378, March.
  20. Khurshid Kiani & Terry Kastens, 2008. "Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 383-406, November.
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