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Market Responses to the Panic of 2008

  • Casey Mulligan
  • Luke Threinen

We model the panic of 2008 as part of the wealth and substitution effects deriving from a housing price crash that began in 2006. The dissipation of the wealth effect stimulates a reorganization of the banking industry and increases in employment, GDP, and unemployment. The release of resources from the housing sector lowers investment goods prices, and thereby devalues existing non-residential capital while stimulating non-residential investment. These predictions are compared with measured U.S. economic performance from 2006 to 2008 Q2.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14446.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14446.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14446
Note: EFG ME PE
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  1. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
  2. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Mulligan, Casey B & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics in Two-Sector Models of Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 739-73, August.
  4. Casey B. Mulligan, 1998. "Pecuniary Incentives to Work in the United States during World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1033-1077, October.
  5. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  6. Merton, Robert C. & Bodie, Zvi, 1993. "Deposit insurance reform: a functional approach," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-34, June.
  7. John P. Harding & Xiaozhing Liang & Stephen L. Ross, 2007. "The Optimal Capital Structure of Banks: Balancing Deposit Insurance, Capital Requirements and Tax-Advantaged Debt," Working papers 2007-29, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
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