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Reassessing Taylor rules using improved housing rent data

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  • Ambrose, Brent W.
  • Coulson, N. Edward
  • Yoshida, Jiro

Abstract

There is a debate whether the federal funds rate deviated from the Taylor rule. We present evidence that standard inflation measures do not reflect the contemporaneous state of housing rents, which are a large part of price indexes. Using a new housing rent index (RRI) developed by Ambrose et al. (2015), we compute the RRI-based Taylor rule for the period from 2000 to 2010. The modified Taylor rule indicates that seemingly large deviations are better understood as delays due to the stale information regarding housing rents. It also provides a justification for Quantitative Easing and a better alternative to other versions of Taylor rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2018. "Reassessing Taylor rules using improved housing rent data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 243-257.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:243-257
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.03.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshida, Jiro, 2020. "The economic depreciation of real estate: Cross-sectional variations and their return implications," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Brent W. Ambrose & N. Edward Coulson & Jiro Yoshida, 2023. "Housing Rents and Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 975-992, June.
    3. Cathal Coffey & Kieran McQuinn & Conor O'Toole, 2022. "Rental equivalence, owner‐occupied housing, and inflation measurement: Microlevel evidence from Ireland," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 990-1021, December.
    4. Lopez, Luis A. & Yoshida, Jiro, 2022. "Estimating housing rent depreciation for inflation adjustments," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Brian Adams & Lara Loewenstein & Hugh Montag & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2022. "Disentangling rent index differences: data, methods, and scope," Working Papers 22-38R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 28 Sep 2023.
    6. O’Toole, Conor & Martinez-Cillero, Maria & Ahrens, Achim, 2021. "Price regulation, inflation, and nominal rigidity in housing rents," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Federal funds rate; Taylor rule; Personal consumption expenditures; Inflation measures; Housing rent;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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