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Credit Market Speculation and the Cost of Capital

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  • Yeon-Koo Che
  • Rajiv Sethi

Abstract

We examine the effect of speculation using credit derivatives on the cost of debt and the likelihood of default. The availability of credit default swaps induces investors who are optimistic about borrower revenues to sell protection instead of buying bonds. This benefits borrowers if protection can only be bought with an insurable interest, but can increase the cost of debt and crowd out productive lending if protection can be purchased as a bet on default. We also show that the possibility of speculation on default may cause multiple equilibria and exacerbate the problem of rollover risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Yeon-Koo Che & Rajiv Sethi, 2014. "Credit Market Speculation and the Cost of Capital," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 1-34, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:1-34
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mic.6.4.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Augustin, Patrick & Rubtsov, Alexey & Shin, Donghwa, 2022. "The impact of derivatives on spot markets: Evidence from the introduction of bitcoin futures contracts," LawFin Working Paper Series 41, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).
    2. Oehmke, Martin & Zawadowski, Adam, 2016. "The anatomy of the CDS market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118964, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Determinants of CDS trading on major banks," Working Papers Dissertations 51, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    4. Lan, Hao & Moreira, Fernando & Zhao, Sheng, 2023. "Can a house resale restriction policy curb speculation? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 841-859.
    5. Peng Liang & Nan Hu & Ling Liu & Ting Zhang, 2023. "Managerial tone and investors' hedging activities: Evidence from credit default swaps," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 3971-3998, December.
    6. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2019. "Effectiveness of policy and regulation in European sovereign credit risk markets: A network analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 125, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Nina Boyarchenko & Anna M. Costello & Or Shachar, 2018. "Credit Market Choice," Liberty Street Economics 20181017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Czech, Robert, 2021. "Credit default swaps and corporate bond trading," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    9. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    10. Naceur Essaddam & Miran Hossain & Tashfeen Hussain, 2023. "Do credit default swaps impact lenders’ monitoring of loans?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 567-600, August.
    11. Gan, Liu & Yang, Zhaojun, 2024. "Financial decisions involving credit default swaps over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. Wang, Qi & Zhang, Chunyu & Ding, Yi & Xydis, George & Wang, Jianhui & Østergaard, Jacob, 2015. "Review of real-time electricity markets for integrating Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 695-706.
    13. Oehmke, Martin & Zawadowski, Adam, 2015. "Synthetic or real? The equilibrium effects of credit default swaps on bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit default swaps and corporate cash holdings," CFS Working Paper Series 462, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    15. Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Dragon Yongjun Tang & Sarah Qian Wang, 2016. "Credit Default Swaps, Exacting Creditors and Corporate Liquidity Management," Working Papers 202016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2022. "Assessing the impact of policy and regulation interventions in European sovereign credit risk networks: What worked best?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Yu, Sherry, 2017. "Sovereign and bank Interdependencies—Evidence from the CDS market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 68-84.
    18. Alessandro Andreoli & Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Graziella Pacelli, 2018. "Pricing Credit Default Swaps Under Multifactor Reduced-Form Models: A Differential Quadrature Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 379-406, March.
    19. Weber, Matthias & Duffy, John & Schram, Arthur, 2024. "Regulation and the demand for credit default swaps in experimental bond markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2017. "Credit default swaps, exacting creditors and corporate liquidity management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 395-414.
    21. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2018. "Reassessing Taylor rules using improved housing rent data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 243-257.
    22. Maximilian Jager & Frederick Zadow, 2023. "Clear(ed) Decision: The Effect of Central Clearing on Firms Financing Decision," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_445, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    23. Datta, Bikramaditya & Sethi, Rajiv, 2023. "The dynamics of leverage and the belief distribution of wealth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 20-31.
    24. Bikramaditya Datta & Rajiv Sethi, 2023. "The Dynamics of Leverage and the Belief Distribution of Wealth," Papers 2304.03436, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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