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Was the European sovereign crisis self-fulfilling? Empirical evidence about the drivers of market sentiments

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  • Bruneau, Catherine
  • Delatte, Anne-Laure
  • Fouquau, Julien

Abstract

We investigate the presence of self-fulfilling dynamics during the European sovereign crisis in the light of a theoretical model that we bring to the data. Our empirical framework allows us to empirically test the presence of self-fulfilling dynamics and to identify what may have driven the market sentiment during this crisis. To do so we estimate the probability of default of five European “peripheral” countries during January 2006 to September 2011 with a panel smooth threshold regression. Our estimation results suggest that (1) both the fundamentals and “animal spirit” ignited the European sovereign crisis; (2) we isolate the risk indicator through which investors’ belief coordinate.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruneau, Catherine & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Fouquau, Julien, 2014. "Was the European sovereign crisis self-fulfilling? Empirical evidence about the drivers of market sentiments," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:38-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.07.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    3. Michel Aglietta & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "Érosion du tissu productif en France. Causes et remèdes," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 95-150.
    4. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    5. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 919-945, August.
    6. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
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    8. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    9. Yeon-Koo Che & Rajiv Sethi, 2014. "Credit Market Speculation and the Cost of Capital," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 1-34, November.
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    12. Baldursson, Fridrik Mar & Portes, Richard, 2013. "Gambling for resurrection in Iceland: the rise and fall of the banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    14. Janus, Thorsten & Jinjarak, Yothin & Uruyos, Manachaya, 2013. "Sovereign default risk, overconfident investors and diverse beliefs: Theory and evidence from a new dataset on outstanding credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 330-336.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European sovereign crisis; Panel smooth threshold regression models; Multiple equilibria; Self-fulfilling crisis; Credit default swap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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