IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nsr/niesrd/2616.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Calibrating macroprudential policy

Author

Listed:
  • Iana Liadze

    ()

  • Ray Barrell

    ()

  • Professor E. Philip Davis

    ()

Abstract

Policy proposals on the new international standards for bank capital and liquidity are being debated without any methodical evaluation of their effects on both crisis probabilities and concurrent social costs. Using data for 14 OECD economies for the years 1980 Ð 2007, we conduct a systematic evaluation of crisis determinants and find that bank capital adequacy, liquidity, the current account deficit and changes in house prices are the principal factors associated with OECD banking crises. There is no evidence of procyclical risks being generated by credit or GDP growth. We explicitly quantify the regulatory changes to capital and liquidity that would be required in each OECD economy over time in order to ensure systemic stability. We show that an international consensus on regulatory changes will generate 'winners' and 'losers' in terms of capital and liquidity adjustments, and we suggest that raising capital and liquidity by 4 percentage points of total assets across the board will reduce the average probability of a financial crisis to around 1%. Our results have important implications for the next generation of international banking regulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "Calibrating macroprudential policy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 354, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:2616
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/dp354_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299, September.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2009. "The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 606-610, May.
    5. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2010. "The Role Of Credit Aggregates And Asset Prices In The Transmission Mechanism: A Comparison Between The Euro Area And The Usa," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 345-377, July.
    6. Goodhart, Charles, 2005. "The interest rate conditioning assumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24666, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Lars Jonung, 2008. "Lessons from Financial Liberalisation in Scandinavia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 564-598, December.
    8. Ray Barrell & E Philip Davis & Tatiana Fic & Dawn Holland & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze, 2009. "Optimal Regulation of Bank Capital and Liquidity: How to Calibrate New International Standards," Occasional Papers 38, Financial Services Authority.
    9. Martin Cihak, 2006. "How Do Central Banks Writeon Financial Stability?," IMF Working Papers 06/163, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Sushil Wadhwani, 2008. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Bubbles? Revisiting the Debate," FMG Special Papers sp180, Financial Markets Group.
    11. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
    12. Charles Goodhart, 2005. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," FMG Discussion Papers dp547, Financial Markets Group.
    13. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
    14. Sushil Wadhwani, 2008. "Should Monetary Policy Respond To Asset Price Bubbles? Revisiting the Debate," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 206(1), pages 25-34, October.
    15. Viral V. Acharya & Hyun Song Shin & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Crisis Resolution and Bank Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2166-2205.
    16. Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2007. "Financial Liberalisation, Consumption And Wealth Effects In Seven Oecd Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 254-267, May.
    17. Casey Mulligan & Luke Threinen, 2008. "Market Responses to the Panic of 2008," NBER Working Papers 14446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oriol Carreras & E Philip Davis & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Macroprudential tools, transmission and modelling," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 470, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Ashraf, Dawood & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & L’Huillier, Barbara, 2016. "A net stable funding ratio for Islamic banks and its impact on financial stability: An international investigation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 47-57.
    3. Gábor Dávid Kiss & Andreász Kosztopulosz, 2012. "The impact of the crisis on the monetary autonomy of Central and Eastern European countries," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 57(1), pages 28-52.
    4. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2014. "What do we know about the effects of macroprudential policy?," DNB Working Papers 440, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:2616. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Library & Information Manager). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.