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Oil prices and the U.S. economy: Evidence from the stock market

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  • Thorbecke, Willem

Abstract

Using three identification strategies, this paper finds that supply-driven oil price increases lowered U.S. stock returns in many sectors before the shale oil revolution but not after. It also reports that oil prices are a priced factor in a multi-factor asset pricing model both before and after the shale revolution. While oil prices mattered in both periods, the beneficial effects of oil price increases on the U.S. stock market have risen and the harmful effects have fallen since U.S. oil production soared after 2010.

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  • Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "Oil prices and the U.S. economy: Evidence from the stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:61:y:2019:i:c:13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103137
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil prices; Stock returns;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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