IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2019-04-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Oil Prices on Stocks Markets: New Evidence During and After the Arab Spring in Gulf Cooperation Council Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Hani El-Chaarani

    (Beirut Arab University, Lebanon.)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of stock price fluctuations on stock markets in six countries in Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar) during and after the recent geopolitics conflicts, known as Arab Spring, from January 2011 to December 2017. Two statistical models were implemented to measure the relationship between oil price fluctuations and stock markets returns. The logistic smooth transition model (LSTR) was implemented to measure the relationship between oil price direction (positive/negative) and stock markets returns. The exponential smooth transition model (ESTR) was applied to capture the relationship between the magnitude of oil price fluctuations (small/large) and stock markets returns. The results reveal several asymmetrical results of oil price directions (positive/negative) on stock markets returns in some GCC countries. In Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain, the negative oil price fluctuations have larger impact on the returns of stocks markets than positive oil price fluctuations. The results reveal also that the existence of political instability increases the sensitivity of stock markets returns on negative oil price shocks. In addition, the results of ESTR model do not reveal any asymmetrical relationship between the magnitude of oil price changes and stock markets returns in GCC region except Oman. A high level of oil price shocks has larger impact on Omani stock market returns than small oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Hani El-Chaarani, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Stocks Markets: New Evidence During and After the Arab Spring in Gulf Cooperation Council Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 214-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-04-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/7978/4428
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/7978/4428
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    3. Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Tran Ngoc Tho & Dinh Thi Thu Hong, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 42-49.
    4. Al Shugaa, Ameen & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Uncertainty and Volatility in MENA Stock Markets During the Arab Spring," MPRA Paper 58867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ekhlas Al-hajj & Usama Al-mulali & Sakiru Adebola Solarin, 2017. "The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Returns: Fresh Evidence from Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 235-244.
    6. Hani El-Chaarani & Zouhour El-Abiad, 2019. "Analysis of Capital Structure and Performance of Banking Sector in Middle East Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11.
    7. Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent C., 2002. "The explanatory power of political risk in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27.
    8. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2016. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock market under structural breaks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-23.
    9. Marie-Claude Beaulieu & Jean-Claude Cosset & Naceur Essaddam, 2005. "The impact of political risk on the volatility of stock returns: the case of Canada," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 36(6), pages 701-718, November.
    10. Dutta, Anupam & Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2017. "Impact of oil price uncertainty on Middle East and African stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 189-197.
    11. Acaravci, Ali & Ozturk, Ilhan & Kandir, Serkan Yilmaz, 2012. "Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1646-1654.
    12. Mohamed Albaity & Hasan Mustafa, 2018. "International and Macroeconomic Determinants of Oil Price: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81.
    13. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Alexey Yurievich Mikhaylov, 2018. "Pricing in Oil Market and Using Probit Model for Analysis of Stock Market Effects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 69-73.
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K. & Appiah, Michael Owusu, 2014. "Oil price fluctuation, volatility spillover and the Ghanaian equity market: Implication for portfolio management and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.
    16. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    17. Ahmed Almohaimeed & Nizar Harrathi, 2013. "Volatility Transmission and Conditional Correlation between Oil prices, Stock Market and Sector Indexes: Empirics for Saudi Stock Market," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 1-8.
    18. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    19. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Sami Ben Naceur & Mr. Oussama Kanaan & Christophe Rault, 2018. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models," IMF Working Papers 2018/098, International Monetary Fund.
    20. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
    21. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Wang, Jun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-19.
    22. Serkan Yilmaz Kandir, 2013. "Causality between Natural Gas Prices and Stock Market Returns in Turkey," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 203-220.
    23. Abdulazeez Y.H. Saif-Alyousfi & Rohani Md-Rus & Kamarun Nisham Taufil Mohd, 2018. "Oil Price and Banking Sectors in Gulf Cooperation Council Economies before and after the Global Financial Turmoil: Descriptive Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 89-101.
    24. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    25. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2011. "Oil sensitivity and its asymmetric impact on the stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 168-174.
    26. Reem Khamis & Mohammad Anasweh & Allam Hamdan, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns in Oil Exporting Countries: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 301-306.
    27. Kim, Harold Y. & Mei, Jianping P., 2001. "What makes the stock market jump? An analysis of political risk on Hong Kong stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1003-1016, December.
    28. Musa Foudeh, 2017. "The Long Run Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Growth: The Case of Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 171-192.
    29. Ramaprasad Bhar & Biljana Nikolova, 2010. "Global Oil Prices, Oil Industry And Equity Returns: Russian Experience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 169-186, May.
    30. Malek Alsharairi & Wa’el Abubaker, 2016. "Does Arab spring have a spillover effect on Dubai financial market?," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(6), pages 319-331, Special I.
    31. Hani El-chaarani & Nashwa Shaker Ragab, 2018. "Financial Resistance of Islamic Banks in Middle East Region: A Comparative Study with Conventional Banks During the Arab Crises," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 207-218.
    32. Jouini, Jamel & Harrathi, Nizar, 2014. "Revisiting the shock and volatility transmissions among GCC stock and oil markets: A further investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 486-494.
    33. Abdelbaki, Hisham, 2013. "The Impact of Arab Spring on Stock Market Performance," MPRA Paper 54814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Diaz, Elena Maria & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2017. "Oil price shocks and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 75-80.
    35. Olamide T. Ojikutu & Rita U. Onolemhemhen & Sunday O. Isehunwa, 2017. "Crude Oil Price Volatility and its Impact on Nigerian Stock Market Performance (1985-2014)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 302-311.
    36. Kenneth Chikezie Anyalechi & Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku & Josaphat. U. J. Onwumere & E. J. Okereke, 2019. "Does Oil Price Fluctuation Affect Stock Market Returns in Nigeria?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 194-199.
    37. Trabelsi Mnif, Afef, 2017. "Political uncertainty and behavior of Tunisian stock market cycles: Structural unobserved components time series models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 206-214.
    38. IRSHAD Hira, 2017. "Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns And Stock Market Volatility," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 70-99, August.
    39. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    40. Ankit Sharma & Sasmita Giri & Harsh Vardhan & Sujeet Surange & Rohan Shetty & Vishwaroop Shetty, 2018. "Relationship between Crude Oil Prices and Stock Market: Evidence from India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 331-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haider Mahmood, 2021. "Oil Price and Industrial Growth in Saudi Arabia: Sectoral and Asymmetry Analyses," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 7-13.
    2. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2020. "Arab geopolitics in turmoil: Implications of Qatar-Gulf crisis for business," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 100-119.
    3. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.
    4. Rebecca Abraham & Mahmoud El Samad & Amer M. Bakhach & Hani El-Chaarani & Ahmad Sardouk & Sam El Nemar & Dalia Jaber, 2022. "Forecasting a Stock Trend Using Genetic Algorithm and Random Forest," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "Oil Price and Capital Formation Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 146-151.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    2. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    3. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Naceur, Sami & Kanaan, Oussama & Rault, Christophe, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Kuang, Wei, 2022. "The economic value of high-frequency data in equity-oil hedge," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    5. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali & Muhammad Naveed & Ifraz Adeel, 2021. "Risk and Return Transmissions From Crude Oil to Latin American Stock Markets During the Crisis: Portfolio Implications," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    6. Kumar, Satish & Pradhan, Ashis Kumar & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2019. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil, natural gas, and stock prices in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 282-291.
    7. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Sami Ben Naceur & Oussama Kanaan & Christophe Rault, 2018. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 7072, CESifo.
    8. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: volatility spillovers and implications for portfolio management," MPRA Paper 87637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mohammad I. Elian & Khalid M. Kisswani, 2018. "Oil price changes and stock market returns: cointegration evidence from emerging market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 317-337, November.
    10. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    11. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. Yang, Tianle & Zhou, Fangxing & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang & Zhou, Shirong, 2023. "Fluctuation in the global oil market, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty: A study of the US and China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 377-387.
    13. Dohyoung Kwon, 2022. "The impacts of oil price shocks and United States economic uncertainty on global stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1595-1607, April.
    14. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2021. "Volatility transmissions across international oil market, commodity futures and stock markets: Empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. NIDHALEDDINE BEN CHEIKH & SAMI BEN NACEUR & OUSSAMA KANAAN & Christophe RAULT, 2019. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Vector Smooth Transition Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2697, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    16. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Imtiaz Hussain Khan, 2023. "Oil price volatility and stock returns: Evidence from three oil‐price wars," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3162-3182, July.
    18. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    19. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    20. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2018. "New DCC analyses of return transmission, volatility spillovers, and optimal hedging among oil futures and oil equities in oil-producing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 1202-1217.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Stock Markets; Arab Spring; Geopolitical conflicts; Gulf Cooperation Council;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-04-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.