IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/crmide/v11y2024i3p338-359.html

Co-movement of Oil and Stock Markets During COVID-19: Evidence from the Gulf Corporation Council

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Hanif

Abstract

This study aims to document the impact of oil price variations on generating stock returns in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets during the COVID-19 era. It documents the pandemic era results from January 2020 to October 2022 by employing cointegration, Granger causality, and time-varying coefficient-vector autoregression techniques on daily data. The findings suggest two-way causality between all stock indices and the oil market. Time-dependent relationships were observed during the review period. The findings (based on regression and variance decomposition) indicate that although the reliance of the GCC stock markets was not on oil alone, oil had a significant impact during the study period. It is recommended that investors not consider diversifying portfolios in GCC stocks and oil markets to optimize benefits. The findings are expected to enhance the understanding of academics, market players, regulators, and investors regarding relationships among GCC stocks and oil markets. This study contributes to the literature by documenting the impact of the oil market on stocks during an abnormal period of the COVID-19 pandemic, considering time-varying parameters in a net oil exporting region.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Hanif, 2024. "Co-movement of Oil and Stock Markets During COVID-19: Evidence from the Gulf Corporation Council," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 11(3), pages 338-359, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:crmide:v:11:y:2024:i:3:p:338-359
    DOI: 10.1177/23477989241260199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/23477989241260199
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/23477989241260199?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Masoud Shirazi & Ali Emami Meibodi, 2020. "Reaction of Stock Market Index to Oil Price Shocks," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 24(1), pages 99-128, Winter.
    2. Chinnadurai Kathiravan & Murugesan Selvam & Balasundram Maniam & Sankaran Venkateswar, 2019. "Relationship between Crude Oil Price Changes and Airlines Stock Price: The Case of Indian Aviation Industry," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 7-13.
    3. Muhammad Hanif, 2020. "Relationship between Oil and Stock Markets: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 150-157.
    4. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal, 2021. "Risk spillover from crude oil prices to GCC stock market returns: New evidence during the COVID-19 outbreak," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Arouri Mohamed el hédi & Fouquau Julien, 2009. "On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in gcc countries: linear and nonlinear analyses," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 795-804.
    6. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2016. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock market under structural breaks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-23.
    7. Mohammad A. Dharmawan & Dominicus S. Priyarsono & Bagus Sartono, 2017. "Impacts of Oil Price Shock on Sector Returns with Regime-Switching Approach: New Evidence from Indonesian Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 44-59.
    8. Wenting Zhang & Xie He & Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "How Does the Spillover among Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Electricity Utility Stocks Change over Time? Evidence from North America and Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-26, February.
    9. Mohamed Albaity & Hasan Mustafa, 2018. "International and Macroeconomic Determinants of Oil Price: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81.
    10. Xiaojing Cai & Shigeyuki Hamori & Lu Yang & Shuairu Tian, 2020. "Multi-Horizon Dependence between Crude Oil and East Asian Stock Markets and Implications in Risk Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-24, January.
    11. Muhammad Hanif & Ariba Sabah, 2020. "Stock Markets’ Integration in Post Financial Crisis Era: Evidence from Literature," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 43-71.
    12. Alexey Yurievich Mikhaylov, 2018. "Pricing in Oil Market and Using Probit Model for Analysis of Stock Market Effects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 69-73.
    13. Shabbir Ahmad, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Price Uncertainty on Stock Returns in Gulf Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 447-452.
    14. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of oil prices on stock returns in Shanghai stock exchange: Evidence from asymmetric ARDL model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, June.
    15. Shuping Shi & Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips, 2020. "Causal Change Detection in Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting the Money–Income Relationship [Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the United States]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 18(1), pages 158-180.
    16. Hazem Marashdeh & Akhsyim Afandi, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Returns in the Three Largest Oil-producing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 312-322.
    17. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    18. Lu, Man & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Salman, Asma & Razzaq, Muthanna G. Abdul & Uddin, Mohammed Ahmar, 2023. "Time varying connectedness between foreign exchange markets and crude oil futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    19. Refai, Hisham Al & Zeitun, Rami & Eissa, Mohamed Abdel-Aziz, 2022. "Impact of global health crisis and oil price shocks on stock markets in the GCC," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    20. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sina Davoudi & Alireza Fazlzadeh & Firouz Fallahi & Hossein Asgharpour, 2018. "The Impact of Oil Revenue Shocks on the Volatility of Iran s Stock Market Return," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 102-110.
    22. Anil Sharma & Neha Seth, 2012. "Literature review of stock market integration: a global perspective," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 84-122, April.
    23. Priyanka Aggarwal & Manoj Kumar Manish, 2020. "Effect of Oil Fluctuation on Stock Market Return: An Empirical Study from India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 213-217.
    24. Hani El-Chaarani, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Stocks Markets: New Evidence During and After the Arab Spring in Gulf Cooperation Council Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 214-223.
    25. Christopher F Baum & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay & Jesús Otero, 2022. "Testing for time-varying Granger causality," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 22(2), pages 355-378, June.
    26. Shinaj Valangattil Shamsudheen & Mudeer Ahmed Khattak & Aishath Muneeza & Makeen Huda, 2022. "COVID-19 and GCC stock market performance: an analysis of the boon (financial stimulus package) and curse (oil price plunge) effects," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 223-235, March.
    27. Olamide T. Ojikutu & Rita U. Onolemhemhen & Sunday O. Isehunwa, 2017. "Crude Oil Price Volatility and its Impact on Nigerian Stock Market Performance (1985-2014)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 302-311.
    28. Rim Ammar Lamouchi & Suha Mahmoud Alawi, 2020. "Dynamic Linkages Between the Oil Spot, Oil Futures, and Stock Markets: Evidence from Dubai," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 377-383.
    29. Mokni, Khaled & Youssef, Manel, 2019. "Measuring persistence of dependence between crude oil prices and GCC stock markets: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 14-33.
    30. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Weishun Lin & Xinyang Wei & Gaoyun Yan & Siqi Li & Ni Sheng, 2019. "The Impact of International Oil Prices on the Stock Price Fluctuations of China’s Renewable Energy Enterprises," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    31. Alexandra Horobet & Georgiana Vrinceanu & Consuela Popescu & Lucian Belascu, 2019. "Oil Price and Stock Prices of EU Financial Companies: Evidence from Panel Data Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, October.
    32. Berna Aydogan & Istemi Berk, 2015. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidences from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 54-68.
    33. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock exchanges in Caspian Basin countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    34. Ankit Sharma & Sasmita Giri & Harsh Vardhan & Sujeet Surange & Rohan Shetty & Vishwaroop Shetty, 2018. "Relationship between Crude Oil Prices and Stock Market: Evidence from India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 331-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hani El-Chaarani, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Stocks Markets: New Evidence During and After the Arab Spring in Gulf Cooperation Council Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 214-223.
    2. Nazlıoğlu, Elif Hilal & Kök, Dündar & Soytaş, Uğur, 2025. "Energy prices and stock markets: Does energy supply security matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Mohamed Albaity & Ray Saadaoui Mallek & Hasan Mustafa, 2022. "Bank Stock Return Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Investor Sentiment in MENA Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Haider Mahmood, 2021. "Oil Price and Industrial Growth in Saudi Arabia: Sectoral and Asymmetry Analyses," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 7-13.
    5. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie & Abuzayed, Bana, 2023. "Decomposed oil price shocks and GCC stock market sector returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Khairulla Massadikov, 2021. "Volatility Spillovers between Oil Prices and Stock Returns in Developing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 121-126.
    8. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "Oil Price and Capital Formation Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 146-151.
    9. Xiao, Di & Wang, Jun, 2020. "Dynamic complexity and causality of crude oil and major stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2024. "Energy transition and non-energy firms’ financial performance: Do markets value capability-based energy transition strategies?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Ngo Thai HUNG, 2020. "Conditional dependence between oil prices and CEE stock markets: a copula-GARCH approach Abstract: This study investigates both the constant and time-varying conditional dependency between crude oil and stock markets for the CEE countries (Hungary, P," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 62-86, June.
    12. Muhammad Hanif, 2020. "Relationship between Oil and Stock Markets: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 150-157.
    13. Roudari, Soheil & Sadeghi, Abdorasoul & Gholami, Samad & Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers among natural gas, liquid natural gas, trade policy uncertainty, and stock market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Mensi, Walid & Anik, Kaysul Islam & Rahman, Mishkatur & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "The impacts of COVID-19 crisis on spillovers between the oil and stock markets: Evidence from the largest oil importers and exporters," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 345-372.
    15. Zhao, Jing & Cui, Luansong & Liu, Weiguo & Zhang, Qiwen, 2023. "Extreme risk spillover effects of international oil prices on the Chinese stock market: A GARCH-EVT-Copula-CoVaR approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    16. Christian Urom & Gideon Ndubuisi & Jude Ozor, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 51-66.
    17. NEIFAR, MALIKA & HarzAllah, AMIRA, 2025. "Integration, Contagion and Turmoils; Evidence from Emerging markets," MPRA Paper 123775, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Feb 2025.
    18. António Afonso & José Alves & José Carlos Coelho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2025. "Fiscal and External Sustainability: a Two-Step Time-varying Granger Causality Assessment," Working Papers REM 2025/0369, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:crmide:v:11:y:2024:i:3:p:338-359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.