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Energy prices and stock markets: Does energy supply security matter?

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  • Nazlıoğlu, Elif Hilal
  • Kök, Dündar
  • Soytaş, Uğur

Abstract

This study examines the interactions between stock markets, oil prices, and security of energy supply in 25 countries with the highest energy consumption from 1980 to 2018. We utilize bi- and multi-variate models with and without smooth structural breaks. The novel Fourier expansion to the Toda-Yamamoto causality procedure highlights the importance of smooth structural shifts in model specification. The new methodology uncovers significantly stronger impact of energy security on the causal link between energy and stock markets. Our results offer new and important implications for policymakers, investors, and researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazlıoğlu, Elif Hilal & Kök, Dündar & Soytaş, Uğur, 2025. "Energy prices and stock markets: Does energy supply security matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:103:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025007051
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104542
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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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