Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries
This study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock prices by using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and error–correction based Granger causality models for the EU-15 countries. We employ quarterly data covering the period from 1990:1 to 2008:1. Empirical findings suggest that there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, industrial production and stock prices in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. However, no relationship is found between these variables in the other ten EU-15 countries. Although we detect a significant long-run relationship between stock prices and natural gas prices, Granger causality test results imply an indirect Granger causal relationship between these two variables. In addition, we investigate the Granger causal relationship between stock returns, industrial production growth and natural gas price increase for Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. As a result, increase in natural gas prices seem to impact industrial production growth at the first place. In turn, industrial production growth appears to affect stock returns.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro, 1989.
"The Stock Market and Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
2925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2005. "Oil sensitivity and systematic risk in oil-sensitive stock indices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-21.
- Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2000.
"The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 615-625, December.
- Asafu-Adjaye, John, 1999. "The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: Time series evidence from Asian developing countries," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123754, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 229-236, January.
- Syed A. Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2004.
"Oil price risk and emerging stock markets,"
- Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
- Maghyereh, A., 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 27-40.
- Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2005.
"Examination of Some More Powerful Modifications of the Dickey-Fuller Test,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 355-369, 05.
- Steve Leybourne & Paul Newbold & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2003. "Examination Of Some More Powerful Modifications Of The Dickey- Fuller Test," Econometrics 0311007, EconWPA.
- Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2008. "Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 998-1010, May.
- Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
- Boyer, M. Martin & Filion, Didier, 2007.
"Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 428-453, May.
- M. Martin Boyer & Didier Filion, 2004. "Common and Fundamental Factors in Stock Returns of Canadian Oil and Gas Companies," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-62, CIRANO.
- Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market: Evidence from the Eurozone," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5787-5795, December.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1997. "A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-179.
- Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2008.
"Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?,"
2008-51, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
- Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0917, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Awokuse, Titus O., 2002.
"Is The Export-Lead Growth Hypothesis Valid For Canada?,"
15823, University of Delaware, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
- Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
- Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009.
"Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles,"
Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
- J. Isaac Miller & Ronald Ratti, 2008. "Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Jan 2009.
- Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
- Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
- Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
- Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi, 2011. "Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1716-1725, July.
- Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 617-622, February.
- Faff, Robert W. & Brailsford, Timothy J., 1999. "Oil price risk and the Australian stock market," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-87, 06.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "Energy-income causality in OECD countries revisited: The key role of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2359-2373, September.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2331-2341, September.
- Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
- Nandha, Mohan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Systematic risk, and oil price and exchange rate sensitivities in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 326-341, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1646-1654. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.