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A note on the stability of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe

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  • Peter Tillmann

Abstract

This note investigates how the explanatory power of the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve evolves over time. We exploit the present-value implications of the model and use VAR forecasts to assess whether the model matches the behaviour of actual inflation in the Euro area. A set of rolling regressions shows that the model's explanatory power varies substantially over the sample. Regime changes in the underlying monetary framework, i.e. realignment crises in the European Monetary System, the Maastricht treaty and, eventually, the introduction of European Monetary Union, are reflected in a deterioration of the model's explanatory power.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Tillmann, 2010. "A note on the stability of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 241-245, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:241-245
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850701720262
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    2. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
    3. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 463-473, December.
    4. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    6. Kurmann, Andre, 2005. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the fit of a new Keynesian pricing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1119-1134, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.

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