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Fundamental inflation uncertainty

Author

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  • Charlotta Groth
  • Jarkko Jääskelä
  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

We develop a method of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the estimates of the fundamental inflation implied by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The uncertainty is represented as a band around the fundamental inflation, and encompasses the sampling uncertainty of both the estimates of the structural parameters and the estimates of the VAR used to form a projection of real marginal costs. An empirical application on UK and US data confirms that fundamental inflation tracks actual inflation reasonably well in both countries. For the United Kingdom the confidence band is sufficiently narrow, relative to the sample variance of inflation, to identify a number of periods where the predictions of the NKPC do not fully capture movements in actual inflation. In contrast, considerable uncertainty surrounds the estimates of fundamental inflation for the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlotta Groth & Jarkko Jääskelä & Paolo Surico, 2006. "Fundamental inflation uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 309, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:309
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2006/WP309.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.
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    3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
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    6. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 293-318, June.
    7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
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    13. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Günes Kamber & Stephen Millard, 2012. "Using Estimated Models to Assess Nominal and Real Rigidities in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 97-119, December.

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